April 10, 2011 / 4:28 PM / 7 years ago

Gain Capital shares could fall -Barron's

* Tighter leverage, loss of Tradestation may hurt -report

* Shares price could approach tangible book value-report

* Gain not immediately available for a comment

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - Gain Capital Holdings Inc (GCAP.N) shares could fall, perhaps in a decline of nearly 50 percent, because of tighter leverage rules, the loss of a key customer, and a regulatory change that will hurt its metals trading business, Barron’s said in its April 11 edition.

The New York-based provider of retail foreign exchange services and operator of the Forex.com Website went public in December at $9 per share [ID:nN15132062]. Shares have since declined 23 percent, closing Friday at $6.90 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Barron’s said the shares “could drop further, perhaps approaching its tangible book value of $3.50 a share.”

It said the shares do not appear expensive, at roughly 7.5 times estimated 2011 profit of 92 cents per share, but that these earnings could be “tough to hit” based on fourth-quarter profit of 10 cents per share.

Gain did not immediately return telephone and e-mail requests for a comment on Sunday.

    According to the newspaper, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in October halved its leverage limit to 50-to-1, while Japanese regulators will halve its own limit to 25-to-1 later this year.

    This would force investors to put up more cash to maintain large accounts and conduct larger trades, which help companies such as Gain generate revenue.

    According to the newspaper, Gain also stands to lose as a customer Tradestation Group Inc TRAD.O, which accounted for 5 percent of trading volume last year but now plans to do foreign exchange trading internally.

    The newspaper also said last year’s Dodd-Frank financial legislation requires virtually all commodity trading to be done on exchanges after July 15. It said over-the-counter metals trading accounted for 6 percent of Gain’s revenue in 2010. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York)

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