June 12, 2018 / 10:25 AM / 4 months ago

CORRECTED-UPDATE 1-German investor mood at multi-year low on trade, Italy concerns

(Corrects ‘five’ to ‘six’ in first paragraph)

BERLIN, June 12 (Reuters) - The mood among German investors has sunk to its lowest in nearly six years, a survey showed, weighed down by a festering trade dispute with the United States and concerns about Italy’s commitment to the euro zone.

The ZEW research institute’s indicator fell to -16.1 in June from -8.2 in May, it said on Tuesday. That was its lowest level since September 2012 and missed a consensus forecast of -14.0 in a Reuters survey.

World leaders and global economic institutions are warning that protectionist policies espoused by President Donald Trump - including the imposition of punitive import tariffs on steel and aluminium - are casting a dark cloud over the world economy.

But as Europe’s biggest exporter to the United States - a trade relationship that keeps more than one million Germans in employment - Berlin is desperate to avoid a trade war with Washington.

“The latest escalation in the trade dispute with the United States and fears about policies by the new Italian government that could destabilize the financial system are leaving their mark on the outlook for Germany,” ZEW president Achim Wambach said in a statement.

Trump stunned U.S. allies at the weekend when he backed out of a joint communique agreed by Group of Seven leaders in Canada that mentioned the need for “free, fair and mutually beneficial trade” and the importance of fighting protectionism.

The new government appointed this month in Italy comprises anti-establishment parties that have promised to shake up the European Union, though its economy minister said at the weekend the country was committed to the single currency.

The ZEW survey was taken in the two weeks running up to Monday, which suggests most respondents sent their assessment at a time when concerns about Italy were more prominent than those about trade.

“On the face of it, the ZEW index suggests that German growth will decelerate sharply and that recession is a significant risk,” Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics wrote in a note.

“But note that its past relationship with GDP growth has been very weak and we would not draw any firm conclusions from a particular level.”

A separate gauge measuring investors’ assessment of the economy’s current conditions dropped to 80.6 from 87.4 last month. The Reuters consensus forecast was for 85.0.

There was no discernable financial market reaction to Thursday’s data. (Reporting by Joseph Nasr; Editing by Madeline Chambers and John Stonestreet)

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