November 14, 2016 / 9:55 PM / 3 years ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. dollar net longs at 9-1/2-month high in latest week-CFTC, Reuters data

(Adds table, analyst comment, details on dollar, euro, yen
contracts, byline)
    By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
    Nov 14 (Reuters) - Speculators boosted positive bets on the
U.S. dollar for a seventh straight week, as the net long
position rose to its  highest in more than nine months,
according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity
Futures Trading Commission released on Monday.
    The value of the dollar's net long position grew to $22.36
billion in the week ended Nov. 8, from $20.78 billion the
previous week. Last week's net long dollar position was the
largest since late January.
    The cut-off date for last week's currency futures data was
right on U.S. election day, and prior to that, the dollar had
been in the midst of an uptrend. President-elect Donald Trump's
victory last week has cemented the dollar's rally, boosted by
rising inflation and higher interest rates.
    Since the election, the dollar index has rallied more
than 4 percent. So far in November, the greenback has risen 1.5
percent, which followed gains of more than 3 percent last month.
    "Expectations of higher interest rates have been fueled by
anticipation that President-elect Donald Trump will follow
through on his campaign promises of substantially greater
spending on infrastructure and comprehensive tax cuts, which
should result in significantly higher inflation," said James
Chen, head of research at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.
    "In turn, this places upward pressure on interest rates and
the dollar."
    Japanese yen net longs, meanwhile, touched their lowest
since early June, with 31,956 contracts, data showed. 
    On Monday, the yen tumbled to a five-month low against a
surging dollar as U.S. Treasury yields continued to
advance. Benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yields
touched 2.3 percent, the highest since late December.
    Since Trump's presidential election win last week, the yen
has fallen more than 6 percent against the dollar.
    Sterling net short contracts, on the other hand, rose in the
latest period to 89,845 after declining for five straight weeks.
Last week's sterling net shorts were the largest since
mid-October.  
    Despite the rise in short contracts, the British pound's
outlook has improved and the currency has held steady against a
slew of European risks. Italy has a referendum on constitutional
reform next month, while French, Dutch and German national
elections are all due next year.
    A Trump presidency was seen by investors as potentially
strengthening Britain's hand in negotiations with EU leaders as
it leaves the European Union.
    Sterling hit a five-week high against the dollar 
last Friday and posted its best two-week gain on a
trade-weighted basis in almost eight years.
    The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from net positions of International Monetary
Market speculators in the yen, euro, sterling, Swiss franc and
Canadian and Australian dollars.
   
Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen) 
 $-3.799 billion
         11 Nov 2016            Prior week
         week             
 Long             72,619            81,010
 Short            40,663            37,850
 Net              31,956            43,160
 
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
 $17.818 billion
         11 Nov 2016            Prior week
         week             
 Long            118,897           126,443
 Short           248,211           263,828
 Net            -129,314          -137,385
 
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
 $6.95 billion
         11 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             53,211           63,739
 Short           143,056          146,700
 Net             -89,845          -82,961
 
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
 $2.979 billion
         11 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long              6,806           12,744
 Short            30,097           32,714
 Net             -23,291          -19,970
 
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
 $1.604 billion
         11 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             32,850           35,723
 Short            54,162           51,683
 Net             -21,312          -15,960
 
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
 $-3.19 billion 
         11 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             92,503           85,541
 Short            51,395           44,674
 Net              41,108           40,867
 
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
 $0.902 billion
         11 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             25,298           30,838
 Short            58,294           67,310
 Net             -32,996          -36,472
 
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
 $-0.185 billion 
         11 Nov 2016           Prior week
         week             
 Long             36,124           28,557
 Short            33,619           29,522
 Net               2,505             -965
 
 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by James
Dalgleish)
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