May 13, 2020 / 10:48 AM / 17 days ago

FACTBOX-Demand and supply loss estimates for industrial metals

    LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) - Demand and supply for industrial metals are
expected to drop this year as the new coronavirus and lockdowns to contain its
spread disrupt manufacturing and mining activity.
    For story on base metals see            
    For analysts view on base metals see            
    Following are analysts forecasts for demand, supply and market balances for
aluminium, copper, zinc, lead and nickel.

   
                     Aluminium                                            
                       Demand                  Supply                          
                            Pct       Total         Pct       Total            
                         Change      mlns/t      Change      mlns/t     Balance
 Citi                     -6.20       59.62       -1.00       62.34   2,721,000
 ANZ                      -8.00       61.50       -1.00       63.00   1,500,000
 Capital Economics        -4.90       59.77       -0.80       63.43   3,665,000
 CRU                      -8.80       58.53        1.00       63.78   5,246,000
 ED&F Man                 -8.00       57.00       -3.00       62.00   5,000,000
 JPMorgan                 -1.60       63.40        3.60       65.85   2,455,000
 Macquarie                -0.60       64.30        2.00       65.50   1,180,000
 Morgan Stanley           -2.00       63.00        3.90       65.80   2,730,000
 Robin Bhar --            -8.00       57.00       -6.00       59.45   2,450,000
 Independent                                                         
 Minimum                  -8.80       57.00       -6.00       59.45   1,180,000
 Maximum                  -0.60       64.30        3.90       65.85   5,246,000
        
    
    
                         Copper                                             
                         Demand                  Supply                          
                              Pct       Total         Pct       Total            
                           Change      mlns/t      Change      mlns/t     Balance
 Citi                       -4.30       22.77       -2.10       23.31     539,000
 ANZ                        -3.50       22.70       -2.40       23.10     400,000
 Capital Economics          -5.00       22.69       -1.90       23.26     574,000
 CRU                        -5.50       22.04       -3.20       22.54     499,000
 ED&F Man                   -5.00       22.90       -3.00       23.30     400,000
 JPMorgan                   -3.20       23.07       -1.80       23.45     388,000
 Macquarie                  -1.90       23.12        0.10       23.66     542,000
 Morgan Stanley             -2.40       22.50       -1.90       22.60      20,000
 Refinitiv Metals           -3.00       22.99       -2.00       23.19     200,000
 Research                                                              
 Robin Bhar --              -4.00       23.10       -2.50       23.40     300,000
 Independent                                                           
 S&P Global Market          -2.20       23.51       -2.30       23.58      73,000
 Intelligence                                                          
 Minimum                    -5.50       22.04       -3.20       22.54      20,000
 Maximum                    -1.90       23.51        0.10       23.66     574,000
   
    
    
                          Zinc                                              
                         Demand                  Supply                          
                              Pct       Total         Pct       Total            
                           Change      mlns/t      Change      mlns/t     Balance
 Citi                       -7.00       12.92       -1.80       13.42     501,000
 ANZ                        -6.50       13.00       -2.00       13.60     600,000
 CRU                        -4.60       13.15        0.90       13.65     507,000
 ED&F Man                   -8.00       13.50       -5.00       14.00     500,000
 ING                        -1.00       13.64        2.40       13.85     210,000
 JPMorgan                   -2.40       13.56        3.60       14.15     587,000
 Macquarie                  -1.60       13.26        1.00       13.74     480,000
 Morgan Stanley             -1.60       13.70        4.50       14.00     330,000
 Robin Bhar --             -15.00       10.90      -10.00       12.50   1,600,000
 Independent                                                           
 S&P Global Market          -3.10       13.31       -3.30       13.40      90,000
 Intelligence                                                          
 Minimum                   -15.00       10.90      -10.00       12.50      90,000
 Maximum                    -1.00       13.70        4.50       14.15   1,600,000
  
    
    
                          Lead                                              
                         Demand                  Supply                          
                              Pct       Total         Pct       Total            
                           Change      mlns/t      Change      mlns/t     Balance
 Citi                       -7.50       11.70       -3.00       12.42     719,000
 CRU                        -5.90       11.25       -4.30       11.38     129,000
 ED&F Man                   -8.00       11.00       -5.00       11.20     200,000
 Macquarie                  -1.50       12.36        1.50       12.67     312,000
 Morgan Stanley             -2.00       12.30        0.80       12.70     420,000
 Robin Bhar --              -5.00       12.10       -2.00       12.17      70,000
 Independent                                                           
 Minimum                    -8.00       11.00       -5.00       11.20      70,000
 Maximum                    -1.50       12.36        1.50       12.70     719,000
 
    
  
                         Nickel                                             
                         Demand                  Supply                          
                              Pct       Total         Pct       Total            
                           Change      mlns/t      Change      mlns/t     Balance
 Citi                       -4.30        2.32        0.50        2.43     111,000
 ANZ                        -7.00        2.20       -1.50        2.30     100,000
 CRU                        -6.90        2.24       -1.30        2.35     112,000
 ED&F Man                   -4.00        2.33       -2.00        2.53     200,000
 JPMorgan                    3.20        2.36        3.40        2.46     102,000
 Macquarie                  -3.10        2.36        1.50        2.45      91,000
 Morgan Stanley             -2.20        2.32       -2.00        2.41      89,000
 Robin Bhar --              -6.00        2.28       -7.00        2.43     145,000
 Independent                                                           
 S&P Global Market         -17.10        1.99      -13.90        2.04      48,000
 Intelligence                                                          
 Minimum                   -17.10        1.99      -13.90        2.04      48,000
 Maximum                     3.20        2.36        3.40        2.53     200,000
 
 (Reporting by Pratima Desai; additional reporting by Eric Onstad; editing by
Barbara Lewis)
  
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