Political risk must-reads
By Ian Bremmer
Eurasia Group’s selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie — presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.
Flirting with default, Argentina enjoys oil drilling boom — John Kemp, Reuters
In its comprehensive assessment of global shale resources, published in 2013, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that Argentina has the world’s second-largest resources of shale gas (after China) and fourth-largest shale oil (after Russia, the United States and China).
Argentina’s technically recoverable shale gas and oil resources amount to just over and just under 10 percent of the world total respectively, according to the EIA (“Technically recoverable shale oil and shale gas resources” June 2013).
In Need of Investment, Peru Rolls Back Environmental Standards — Paul Shortell, World Politics Review
The production of key metals accounts for more than a fifth of Peru’s inward investment and 60 percent of its exports. As demand for these metals has cooled, along with economic growth rates and President Humala’s approval ratings — his 25 percent rating is his lowest since he took office in 2011 — Humala is relaxing regulations on the mining industry. Is it an economic boon or an environmental cause for concern?
The U.K. is Already Leaving Europe — Leinid Bershidsky, Bloomberg
While a Brexit from the E.U. is still years away — if it happens at all — there is already a noticeable pullback in British representation in the European Commission’s staff. The proportion of British bureaucrats in the organization above the assistant level has dropped to just 5.3 percent in 2014 — down nearly 50 percent since a decade ago.
Immigration Reform Is Actually Happening — Just Not On Capitol Hill — Colin Campbell, Business Insider
Even if immigration reform has stalled at the federal level, the states are pushing through with immigration measures. Last year 184 state immigration laws and 253 resolutions were adopted — a 64 percent increase over 2012. But they may not all be pushing in the same direction: these figures include both pro-immigration and anti-immigration measures.
Jordan’s Quiet Emergency — Alice Su, The Atlantic
One out of ten people in Jordan is a recent refugee. Since 2011, Jordan’s 6.3 million people have taken on 600,000 Syrians, and 29,000 Iraqis. Can Jordan cope with this humanitarian crisis?
One-child proclivity — The Economist
It appears the Chinese governments’ easing of the one-child policy is falling short of expectations. A government official estimated late last year the policy reversal would yield 1 million to 2 million extra births. But a year later, only 240,000 family applications for a second child have been approved.
Africans Open Fuller Wallets to the Future — Nicholas Kulish, The New York Times
Exports from sub-Saharan Africa rose from $68 billion in 1995 to more than $400 billion in 2012. What does this mean for Africa’s growing middle class?