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Fitch revises Ukraine's outlook to negative
June 28, 2013 / 4:57 PM / 4 years ago

Fitch revises Ukraine's outlook to negative

June 28 - (The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: Fitch Affirms Ukraine at 'B'; Revises Outlook to 
NegativeLONDON, June 28 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine's Long-term foreign 
and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B' and has revised the 
Outlooks on the ratings to Negative from Stable. The short-term IDR is affirmed 
at 'B' and the Country Ceiling at 'B'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS 

The revision of the Outlook to Negative from Stable reflects an increasingly 
fragile external financing position, the likelihood that international reserves 
will decline further as Ukraine faces a heavy external debt repayment schedule 
through 2014, and greater challenges in borrowing on international capital 
markets.  

The Outlook revision reflects the following key rating factors and their 
relative weights:-

High

- Financing flexibility and market access: Ukraine's large external financing 
requirement makes it vulnerable to adverse shifts on international capital 
markets. The rating has derived support from the ability of the Ukrainian 
sovereign (as well as state-owned corporates and banks) to maintain access to 
international markets since mid-2012 despite poor fundamentals.. 

- Ukraine could strike a new deal with the IMF, thereby unlocking the necessary 
funds to refinance liabilities to the IMF. However, barring a further sharp 
deterioration in external financing conditions, Fitch no longer expects Ukraine 
to reach an IMF deal in 2013. The authorities have not budged on key, 
politically sensitive conditions: cutting subsidies on domestic household gas 
prices which cost an estimated 5% of GDP, and moving to a more flexible exchange
rate. Raising sufficient funds from alternative sources to refinance IMF 
repayments totalling USD6.4bn in 2013-2014 will prove a challenge.

- Economic policy coherence and credibility: Ukraine runs a wide current account
deficit of 8% of GDP. The national bank depleted its reserves by 18% (or 
USD5.3bn) to barely two months' of current account payments in the year to 
end-May 2013 to support the hryvnia. The authorities have limited scope to 
resist any renewed pressure on the currency, raising risks of a sharp exchange 
rate depreciation. High dollarisation and foreign-currency exposure makes 
government solvency, banks' balance sheets and the overall economy vulnerable to
such an event. 

Medium

- Public Debt Sustainability: Sovereign credit metrics are deteriorating. The 
fiscal deficit widened to 5.8% of GDP in 2012 (including the losses of 
state-owned energy company Naftogaz) and the trend has continued into 2013. 
General government debt plus guarantees stood at 38% of GDP at the end of May 
2013 and is rising, despite the repayment of debt to the IMF by the national 
bank and the government. As a share of government revenue, direct government 
debt is still comfortably below the median. But the risk of a sharp exchange 
rate depreciation pushing up debt/GDP and debt service ratios has increased.

- External Debt Sustainability: Ukraine's gross external debt is higher than the
'B' median at 78.5% of GDP. At a prospective 28% of current external receipts 
(CXR) in 2013, external debt service is among the highest in the 'B' category. 
The 2012 external liquidity ratio of 48% is also low. Concerns focus on the 
sovereign's external debt. Fitch recognises that the share of private sector 
external debt owed to related parties and the 100%+ rollover rate of private 
external debt since 2009 mitigates the gross external debt position. Private 
sector external assets are also high.

Ukraine's 'B' IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:-

- A weak business environment and governance indicators, even relative to the 
'B' median, constrain the country's ability to fully exploit its economic 
potential. 

- GDP and inflation volatility are high, reflecting overheating before the 
global financial crisis and a deep recession in 2008-09, followed by a slowdown 
in 2012.

- The relatively large and still-distressed financial system remains fragile, 
burdened by non-performing loans (NPLs) of 30%, and represents a contingent 
liability to the sovereign, even after solvency support since 2008 worth 10% of 
GDP.

- As a result of a weak monetary policy regime and fragile confidence in the 
domestic currency, dollarisation is high. 

- Conversely, high levels of dollarization afford the sovereign an important 
measure of domestic financing flexibility in foreign currency.

- Income per head is relatively high (at purchasing power parity), and private 
sector estimates suggest that up to half of GDP is unrecorded. Human development
indicators exceed both 'BB' and 'B' median levels.

RATING SENSITIVITIES 

The main factors that individually, or collectively, could trigger negative 
rating action: 

- A more rapid than forecast fall in international reserves, whether triggered 
by a shortfall in external financing, a terms of trade shock, or an upsurge in 
capital outflows. 

- The need for more state support to recapitalise the banking system, which is 
not Fitch's base case. 

The main factors that individually, or collectively, could trigger positive 
rating action: 

- Successful refinancing of obligations due in 2013 and 2014 in such a manner as
to reduce pressure on reserves.

- A return to sustainable growth and a moderation in fiscal and external 
imbalances. 

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

- Fitch assumes that the economy will grow by 0.5%-1% in 2013 and 2%-3% in 2014.
A much weaker economic performance could trigger negative rating action.

- Fitch's forecast assumes some further depreciation in the hryvnia to 
UAH8.5/USD by end-2013 and UAH9/USD by end-2014. Depreciation on this scale 
would be manageable for the financial system and the economy. A more severe 
depreciation could lead to a negative rating action.  

- Fitch assumes that the eurozone remains intact and that there is no 
materialisation of severe tail risks to global financial stability that could 
trigger a sudden increase in investor risk aversion and financial market stress.
Such a scenario would bar Ukraine from borrowing on international capital 
markets and would likely trigger a downgrade.

- Tensions between government and opposition have risen since the legislative 
elections in October 2012, causing interruptions to parliamentary business. 
Fitch assumes that the government can pass legislation if required. A serious 
breakdown in governability would be negative for the rating.

Contact: 

Primary Analyst

Charles Seville

Director

+44 20 3530 1048

Fitch Ratings Limited

30 North Colonnade

London E14 5GN

Secondary Analyst

Paul Rawkins

Senior Director

+44 20 3530 1046

Committee Chairperson

Richard Fox

Senior Director

+44 20 3530 1444

Media Relations: Peter Fitzpatrick, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1103, Email: 
peter.fitzpatrick@fitchratings.com.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com.

Applicable criteria, 'Sovereign Rating Criteria' and 'Country Ceilings' dated 13
August 2012, are available at www.fitchratings.com.

Applicable Criteria and

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