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Fitch: Adverse Market Conditions Take Toll on Deutsche Bank's 2Q16 Results
July 28, 2016 / 12:22 PM / a year ago

Fitch: Adverse Market Conditions Take Toll on Deutsche Bank's 2Q16 Results

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) LONDON, July 28 (Fitch) Pressure on Deutsche Bank's revenue continued in 2Q16, as low levels of client activity more than offset the positive effect of volatility on the bank's foreign-exchange and rates-trading result. Given the slow start of the year, a pick-up in client activity in the second half of the year will be important for Deutsche Bank to stay on track with its capital and profitability targets, Fitch Ratings says. Deutsche Bank generated pre-tax profit of EUR658m in 2Q16, excluding the effect of credit, debit and funding valuation adjustments of EUR35m and a EUR285m goodwill impairment charge. This was a fall of 45% year on year. The bank has made progress in its restructuring plan, but if revenue generation remains subdued, the bank will have less flexibility to absorb higher charges related to its restructuring, the run-down of the Non-Core Operations Unit (NCOU), or to litigation. The agreement to close a quarter of its German branches, announced in June, will only yield cost benefits in 2017. In addition, the planned EUR17bn reduction of risk-weighted assets (RWAs) in the NCOU to below EUR10bn could result in additional costs, although we expect the disposals to benefit regulatory capital ratios. The bank believes that significant outstanding litigation cases could be resolved in 2H16, which could result in additional charges. The group's reserves for litigation, which were EUR5.5bn at end-1H16, provide some buffer. Despite improved performance in rates and foreign-exchange trading, which benefited from market volatility in the quarter, 2Q16 net revenue in the Global Markets division declined 28% yoy. Revenue from the division's debt sales and trading fell 19% yoy, reflecting the bank's decision to scale down certain businesses, including securitised trading, agency RMBS and several emerging markets activities, and subdued client activity in Asia and Pacific. The bank's equity sales and trading unit was challenged across all business lines and saw revenue fall 31%. The benefit from lower litigation charges in 2Q16 was more than offset by a goodwill impairment charge and 2Q16 pre-tax profit fell 97% to EUR28m. Corporate and Investment Bank 2Q16 pre-tax profit decreased 27% to EUR432m as debt and equity origination volumes continued to be subdued and advisory revenues declined on abandoned or postpones deals. Results in transaction banking reflected low trade finance flows but benefitted from higher interest rates in the US. Deutsche Bank continued to increase provisions for credit losses related to the shipping, metals and mining sectors, similar to 1Q16. While we expect asset quality to remain under pressure in these sectors, exposures make up a relatively small proportion of Deutsche Bank's loan book. Low client activity, outflows of net invested assets and pressure from low interest rates continued to affect earnings at the bank's Private Wealth and Commercial Clients (PWCC) and Deutsche Asset Management (DAM) units. Pressure on earnings in these businesses puts a question mark on their role as growth areas in the bank's 2020 Strategy, at least in the short term. PWCC net revenue declined by 5%, excluding the impact of the sale of Hua Xia Bank because of low client activity in a third consecutive quarter of net asset outflows, and pressure from low interest rates. Revenue in DAM, excluding Abbey Life, fell 17% from a strong 2Q15. The EUR9bn net asset outflows were mainly from low-yielding cash and money market products. The group's Postbank segment, which includes the result from the Postbank subsidiary itself, net of separation costs and other consolidation and adjusting items, benefitted from a one-off gain from a business sale, but continues to face pressure on margins. Deutsche Bank indicated that a sale of Postbank in 2016 now appears highly unlikely and, depending on market conditions, could be deferred until end-2019. A deconsolidation of the subsidiary would help to strengthen regulatory capital ratios, which are expected to come under regulatory pressure. The NCOU posted a EUR632m pre-tax loss in 2Q16. The bank remains committed to reduce the unit's RWAs to below EUR10bn by end-2016 and to subsequently reintegrate the unit into the businesses. Deutsche Bank has made progress in reducing RWAs in the unit, which have declined by 17% in 1H16, and the bank stated that the further planned RWA reduction could result in about EUR1bn charges in 2H16, for which the bank has budgeted. Deutsche Bank's regulatory capital ratios did not improve meaningfully in 2Q16 as the modest positive impact from equity compensation and lower capital deductions were offset by modest RWA and leverage ratio denominator increases. The 10.8% fully loaded common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio and 3.4% leverage ratio at end-1H16 are set to improve once the sale of Deutsche Bank's stake in HuaXia Bank is completed, which the management now expects in 2016. We expect Deutsche Bank to reach its planned 11% CET1 ratio by end-2016, largely due to the effect from HuaXia Bank. Maintaining sound capitalisation is an important rating driver. Deutsche Bank's CET1 capital requirement set by the ECB as part of the supervisory review and evaluation process for 2016 consists of Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 requirements of 10.25%. As a global systemically important bank (G-SIB), Deutsche Bank will also have to meet a 2% G-SIB, which is being phased in until 2019. The ECB intends to replace this requirement in 2017 by splitting the Pillar 2 amount into a requirement and a guidance component. While the Pillar 2 guidance amount will not be relevant for maximum distributable amount restrictions, we believe that an overall decrease in CET1 capital that the regulator expects the bank to hold is unlikely. The bank's 2% G-SIB buffer means that the benchmark for DB is highest among ECB-supervised banks. Contact: Christian Scarafia Senior Director Financial Institutions +44 20 3530 1012 Fitch Ratings Limited 30 North Colonnade London E14 5GN Ioana Sima Analyst +44 20 3530 1736 Media Relations: Elaine Bailey, London, Tel: +44 203 530 1153, Email: elaine.bailey@fitchratings.com. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

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