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PREVIEW-Glaxo and Astra face tougher times after good Q1

 * Swine flu, other one-offs to boost first-quarter earnings
 * Glaxo Q1 EPS seen rising 12 pct, Astra up 8 pct
 * Glaxo results April 28 1100 GMT, Astra April 29 1000 GMT
 LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - Britain's leading drugmakers, GlaxoSmithKline
GSK.L and AstraZeneca AZN.L, should report healthy quarterly results next
week, helped by swine flu and other one-offs -- but the rest of the year will be
more tricky.
 Glaxo stands to book a second quarter of exceptional vaccine sales in the
three months to March, buoyed by demand for shots against the H1N1 pandemic.
 Despite some governments cutting back or cancelling orders, it is likely to
rake in around 500 million pounds ($773 million) in swine flu revenue, although
analyst estimates range widely from just over 300 million pounds up to 700
million.
 The H1N1 boom, however, is not expected to last beyond the first quarter,
given the seasonal nature of vaccination and the decline in swine flu cases.
 For AstraZeneca, the bonanza has already run its course and analysts
forecast little, if any, revenue from its nasal spray H1N1 swine flu vaccine in
the first quarter.
 Instead, the Anglo-Swedish group, which reports in dollars, will enjoy
something of a currency boost as well as a tax bonus, following settlement of a
tax row with British authorities that will reduce its tax rate. [ID:nLDE61M09R]
 The result should be a 12 percent rise in first-quarter earnings per share
at Glaxo and around 8 percent for AstraZeneca, according to consensus forecasts.
 The remainder of the year promises to be much tougher across the sector, due
to intensified generic competition and pressure from healthcare reform, not just
in the United States but also Japan and Germany, according to analysts at
Deutsche Bank.
 Glaxo faces accelerating erosion of sales of antiviral Valtrex as the year
progresses, while Astra will see a growing impact from generic copies of heart
drug Toprol XL.
 U.S. drugmakers Eli Lilly LLY.N and Johnson & Johnson JNJ.N have already
warned that President Barack Obama's healthcare reforms will slice into profits
this year.
 Swiss drugmakers Novartis NOVN.VX and Roche ROG.VX, both of which
reported strong quarterly numbers, have been more sanguine over the impact of
U.S. market changes.
 Investors will be watching keenly for comments on the U.S. market from both
British players. AstraZeneca, however, seems unlikely to change its 2010 outlook
since it already said it anticipated the impact of healthcare reform when it
gave original 2010 guidance in January.
 Glaxo does not forecast its earnings.
 The following table shows consensus earnings per share and sales forecasts,
as compiled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S:
               Q1 EPS*     YEAR AGO    Q1 SALES     YEAR AGO
 GlaxoSmithKline   29.4p      26.3p      7.12 bln stg  6.77 bln
 AstraZeneca       $1.70      $1.58      $8.19 bln     $7.70 bln
 * Figures are for "before major restructuring" and "core" earnings


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