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World News

Instant View: Centre-right Fidesz scores big win in Hungary

BUDAPEST (Reuters) - Hungary’s center-right Fidesz party secured 206 out of 386 parliamentary seats in the first round of elections on Sunday, ousting the Socialists after eight years, preliminary results showed.

Based on the first round, Fidesz has a chance to win two-thirds of the seats in the next parliament.

The second round of voting will be held on April 25.

Followings are analysts’ comments on the election outcome.

ZOLTAN NOVAK, MELTANYOSSAG POLITICAL INSTITUTE, BUDAPEST

“I believe Fidesz will succeed in getting two-thirds of the seats, even though by a narrow margin. They can get one or two more mandates from the party compensation list, not too many as they can win in almost all the constituencies. In the constituencies there are only a few places where their opponent leads or stands close to the Fidesz candidate. Voters can get into the mood now in which they will support the election winner. But it’s important for Fidesz to make voters understand between the two election rounds what is at stake. The two-thirds for Fidesz also depends on the campaign but I think they will manage.”

ANDRAS GIRO-SZASZ, SZAZADVEG

“Fidesz needs to win another 52 of the remaining 57 individual constituencies on top of the 206 mandates it won today for a two-thirds (parliamentary) majority.

“If they win about 50 seats of the remaining 57 then it’s feasible they will get another two seats from the national compensation list, so they will need to win 50 seats of the 57 to have a chance for a two-thirds (majority).”

CSABA TOTH, REPUBLIKON INSTITUTE

“Fidesz performed a bit worse than expected, but because of the fact that in the places where the Socialists could stand a chance of winning mandates from Fidesz, especially in Budapest, it was the LMP candidate ending up in third place, they will not withdraw their candidates for the Socialists, which reduces their chances.

“Unless there is a strong psychological effect between the two rounds, that some voters are scared by a too large Fidesz majority, then Fidesz will have two-thirds as the Jobbik voters will go and cast their votes for Fidesz, while the anti-Fidesz vote will be spit between the Socialists and the LMP.

“Even though Fidesz performed a bit below expectations, the mechanism of the electoral system gives it a good chance for a two-thirds majority.”

ZOLTAN TOROK, RAIFFEISEN

“The election victory of Fidesz has been expected by the markets. I expect a neutral market reaction despite the fact that it’s a good thing that there will be a stable government.”

“It’s not good news that they plan to raise the deficit (target) but they will probably first discuss this with the IMF and that will mitigate the impact. Anyway, everybody knows the 3.8 percent deficit target cannot be maintained.”

“If they don’t get two-thirds, they don’t. It is possible to enact deep reforms without two-third majority. And what’s more, there are 3 further parties in parliament and if they manage to convince other parties of supporting reasonable amendment of the constitution ... they can find partners for that.”

GERGELY SUPPAN, TAKAREKBANK, BUDAPEST

“Today’s results can reassure markets. It’s positive for markets if Fidesz wins two-thirds of the mandates ... Even though the two-thirds is not swept in right now, this is a strong result. I did not think that Fidesz would lead after the first round in all constituencies apart from a few, and now they stand a very good chance to garner two thirds. I expect moderate strengthening of the forint and a drop in government bond yields tomorrow... Global developments like Greek news and U.S. economic figures are also supportive.”

Reporting by Gergely Szakacs, Sandor Peto and Krisztina Than; Editing by Alison Williams

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