More shoppers forecast for Black Friday weekend

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As many as 138 million shoppers could be hunting for Black Friday bargains during the three days after Thanksgiving, a slight increase over last year’s projections, according to a retail trade group survey released on Thursday.

Shoppers look through the aisles during a Black Friday sales event at a "Toys R Us" store in Falls Church, Virginia November 27, 2009. REUTERS/Jim Young

Nearly 60 million Americans plan to hit the stores, more than last year’s forecast of 57 million, while an additional 78 million might join the crowds of shoppers this year if the bargains are good enough, the National Retail Federation said.

The total number of possible shoppers is 4 million more than forecast last year, when the NRF forecast up to 134 million Americans would be out shopping over the three-day weekend.

The group does a follow-up survey to ascertain how many of those consumers actually did shop over the weekend, but it includes shoppers on Thanksgiving day.

Black Friday, which falls on November 26, is a key date for retailers, representing the traditional post-Thanksgiving kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Some store chains make up to one-third of annual sales during the November-December period, but many fear that sales this year will be threatened by a weak economy and high unemployment.

Retailers from Macy’s Inc to Best Buy Co Inc try to lure shoppers through “door-buster” deals offering low prices on coveted gifts and the deals continue through the weekend. This year, Wal-Mart Stores Inc will sell Emerson high-definition TVs for $198 and Kodak digital cameras for $59 on Black Friday, as well as offering free shipping during the season in a threat to Inc.

The higher turnout expected for the Black Friday weekend supports an earlier NRF forecast of a 2.3 percent increase in sales in November and December, compared with a 0.4 percent increase in 2009. In 2008, during the worst financial crisis in decades, sales fell by 3.9 percent.


A separate poll this week found that 31 percent of households plan to shop on Black Friday, up from 26 percent a year ago.

The Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving should be even busier, with 37 percent of households expecting to shop, according to the survey from the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Pent-up demand could drive shopping over the weekend. The ICSC survey found that consumers had completed only 15.7 percent of their holiday purchases by November 12-14, compared with 20.5 percent at the same time in 2009 and 28.3 percent in 2008.

The widely-expected uptick in shopping this year is welcomed by retailers, but they remain wary, leaving little to chance in their fight for holiday sales. Knowing consumers are still hesitant to spend and are looking to save money, many are focused on increasing sales by poaching customers from their rivals.

Amid high unemployment and a tepid economic recovery, more U.S. consumers are paring back their spending for the holiday season, according to a survey from consumer research firm America’s Research Group.

One tactic for retailers has been to promote Black Friday sales earlier.

“Instead of waiting until Thanksgiving Day to announce their promotions, many retailers are getting shoppers excited about Black Friday by offering sneak peeks of deals in advance, using social media to create buzz, or teasing upcoming deals on their websites,” NRF president Matthew Shay said in a statement.

This year’s higher forecast for Black Friday shoppers is smaller than the change from 2008 to 2009, when an additional 6 million shoppers were expected.

Reporting by Jon Lentz; editing by Andre Grenon, Dave Zimmerman