WHAT: Commerce Department Housing Starts, June WHEN: Tuesday 0830 EDT (1230 GMT) FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous Starts (units, annual rate) 575,000 600,000 560,000 Permits (units, annual rate) 600,000 590,000 609,000 IFR COMMENTARY: "Housing starts should see a nice boost in June, from 560k to about 600k, following the May surge in permits from 563k to 609k. Permits should drop back down to about 590k.
Multi-unit permits represented a little over 3/4 of the May jump, hitting their highest since January 2009. While multi-unit construction appears to be trending slowly upward in response to the great housing collapse, an increase of that size strikes us as likely to lead to a reversion in June. Single-unit permits will likely tread water, or even gain slightly, to about 410k.
Once this relatively small bump passes, we expect starts and permits to return to their basically flat trend of the last two and a half years. They are running at just a little over a quarter of their peak rates, and that's unlikely to change until the overhang of existing home inventory is significantly worked off."
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-- by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson Reuters.