August 1, 2011 / 4:15 AM / in 7 years

Indonesia's July inflation slows to 4.6 pct y/y, below forecast

 * July CPI up 0.67 pct m/m, below forecast of 0.87 pct
 * July CPI up 4.61 pct y/y, below forecast of 4.81 pct
 * July core CPI up 4.55 pct y/y, below forecast of 4.70 pct
 JAKARTA, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Indonesia's July consumer price index from the
country's statistics bureau.	
 	
 KEY DATA:	
 CPI          (y/y pct change)   (m/m pct     
                              change)      
 July         4.61               July         0.67
 June         5.54               June         0.55
 May          5.98               May          0.12
 April        6.16               April        -0.31
 March        6.65               March        -0.32
 Feb          6.84               Feb          0.13
 Jan          7.02               Jan          0.89
 Dec          6.96               Dec          0.92
 Nov          6.33               Nov          0.60
 Oct          5.67               Oct          0.06
 Sept         5.80               Sept         0.44
 Aug          6.44               Aug          0.76
 July         6.22               July         1.57
 June         5.05               June         0.97
 May          4.16               May          0.29
 April        3.91               April        0.15
 March        3.43               March        -0.14
 Feb          3.81               Feb          0.30
 Jan          3.72               Jan          0.84
 Dec          2.78               Dec          0.33
 Nov          2.41               Nov          -0.03
 Oct          2.57               Oct          0.19
 Sept         2.83               Sept         1.05
 Aug          2.75               Aug          0.56
 July         2.71               July         0.45
 June         3.65               June         0.11
 May          6.04               May          0.04
 April        7.31               April        -0.31
 March        7.92               March        0.22
 Feb          8.60               Feb          0.21
	
 CONTEXT:	
 Indonesia's annual inflation in July was seen easing to the lowest since May
2010 at 4.81 percent, though month-on-month inflation was expected to pick up to
0.87 percent as food prices went up ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in
August. Families enjoy elaborate evening meals after fasting during the day.	
 The consensus by analysts in a Reuters poll was in line with an estimate by
the country's statistics bureau chief, who on Thursday saw July inflation below
5 percent from a year ago. 	
 Analysts expected the slowing inflation to give Indonesia's central bank
room to again hold its benchmark overnight policy rate when meeting on
August 9, though they still expect it will lift the rate once more this year to
dampen inflation.	
 Core inflation -- which excludes administered prices and volatile foods --
in July was seen quickening to 4.7 percent from a year ago, nearing a 5 percent
level the central bank previously said might trigger policy tightening.	
 Bank Indonesia (BI) in its last policy statement said inflation was seen as
under control and the appreciation of the rupiah currency was in line
with efforts to dampen inflation.	
 A BI deputy governor said annual inflation could ease to 4.9 percent by 
year-end if the government did not change its policy on fuel subsidies.
 	
 Any change on fuel subsidies could trigger inflation to build to 5.7
percent, still within BI's target of 4 to 6 percent by year-end. 	
 The central bank has said it remains prudent in dealing with price
pressures, following its only rate rise this year in February, though analysts
see it as having become less hawkish as inflation eased in recent months. BI has
signaled further macroprudential policies to manage liquidity.	
 	
 LINKS:	
 - Indonesia's statistics bureau: .... www.bps.go.id	
 - CPI breakdown ................................. 	
	
 (Reporting by Aditya Suharmoko and Adriana Nina Kusuma; Editing by Neil
Chatterjee)	
 
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