October 16, 2015 / 9:30 AM / 3 years ago

Indonesia Sept palm oil little-changed, exports rise -Reuters survey

* Indonesia's CPO output seen at 3.1 million tonnes in Sept
    * CPO exports seen up 19 percent m/m

    By Michael Taylor
    JAKARTA, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO)
output held around its highest levels in a year in September to
be little changed on the previous month, while exports rose to
their highest since June, a Reuters survey showed.
    CPO output in September eased to 3.1 million tonnes from
3.198 million tonnes in August, according to the median estimate
of a survey of three Indonesian industry officials and
plantation companies.
    With palm oil output entering its peak period during August
and September, vegetable oil traders said October and November
could see a further easing in production as the world's top
producer is expected to enter its wet season.
    Falling output and rising exports may support benchmark palm
prices, which have added 2 percent this year and are
currently tradng at 2,322 ringgit ($556) per tonne. 
    "October could again be slightly lower," said Joelianto, a
senior trader at PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology
 (SMART). "We are reaching the peak."
    Indonesia is expected to face moderate El Nino dry
conditions which could strengthen from September to December,
while fires on Sumatra and Kalimantan have shrouded large parts
of Southeast Asia in so-called "haze". 
    "The production drop was due to El Nino combined with the 
fires (and) haze," said Sahat Sinaga, executive director at the
Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (GIMNI).
    The survey pegged exports at 2.235 million tonnes, the
highest level since June and up 19 percent from August.
    Lower prices attracted more buying in September, especially
from India, added Joelianto.
    According to the survey, Indonesian palm stocks were at
3.050 million tonnes in September, their lowest level since June
and down from 3.392 million in August.
    Indonesia's consumption of the tropical oil was estimated at
a range between 550,000 and 633,000 tonnes.
    The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) publishes
monthly data provided by a professional surveyor, which last
showed September exports at 2.34 million tonnes. 
    The Reuters survey includes contributions from GAPKI, GIMNI
and SMART, one of the largest listed palm companies.
    Below is a table of median Reuters CPO survey results and
GAPKI palm and palm kernel oils export data for 2014/15
(forecasts in million tonnes).
 Month      Output   Exports   Inventories   GAPKI export data
 September  3.100    2.235       3.050          2.34 
 August     3.198    1.885       3.392          2.10       
 July       2.856    1.920       3.200          2.09
 June       2.800    2.400       3.046          2.27
 May        2.774    2.150       2.540          2.22
 April      2.662    2.046       2.602          2.25   
 March      2.397    1.800       2.667          2.03
 February   2.049    1.750       2.425          1.79
 January    2.056    1.658       2.413          1.81
 December   2.165    1.837       2.325          1.97
 November   2.306    2.100       2.225          2.26
 October    2.385    1.820       2.378          2.47
 September  2.675    1.750       2.500          1.70
 August     2.750    1.720       2.575          1.72
 ($1 = 4.1730 ringgit)

 (Reporting by Michael Taylor; Editing by Richard Pullin)
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