LONDON (Reuters) - Global advertising spend is expected to drop 5.5 percent in 2009, more than previously thought, before a mild recovery begins in 2010, according to a new forecast.
WPP’s GroupM said on Wednesday that spending on measured media was expected to drop to $417 billion in 2009 and to be down 1.4 percent to $411 billion in 2010, according to the forecast which looked at 70 countries.
Its previous forecast in March put the 2009 decline at 4.4 percent.
GroupM, which acts as the parent company to the WPP media agencies, said the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China were set to lead the recovery.
Spending on advertising in the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan was forecast to lag behind the recovery.
“China’s economic stimulus has already bolstered confidence, and the demand for advertising in Russia will recover quickly if $70-a-barrel oil prices are here to stay,” said GroupM Futures Director Adam Smith.
“Brazil and Indonesia remain among the top growth contributors, and India is predicted to come back strongly after pausing in 2009.”
Advertising spend in the United States was forecast to fall 4.3 percent in 2009 followed a 6.5 percent drop in 2010.
“Advertising lagged economic recovery for about 18 months after the recession of 1992 and about 12 months after the one in 2001,” Smith said.
“Our global forecast for 2009 has finally stopped tumbling. The 15 countries still reporting positive ad growth in 2009 has become 33 in 2010, and the number could rise as we phase through the year.”
Editing by David Cowell