* Sees 2013 net profit at $1 bln, down 33 pct * Shares fall 1.6 pct WARSAW, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Europe's No.2 copper producer KGHM expects its 2013 full-year net profit to fall by a third due to a bigger hit from a new mining tax and lower production, the company said on Friday. The state-controlled miner said it expects net profit of 3.2 billion zlotys ($1.02 billion) this year, down from 4.74 billion planned for 2012. KGHM's 2013 earnings will be hit by the full impact of a mining tax which Poland introduced in mid 2012. The company will also suffer lower production of 548,000 tonnes, from 564,200 seen in 2012, due to a planned shutdown at its largest smelter. KGHM shares were down 1.6 percent at 184.80 zlotys at 0823 GMT underperforming a 0.48 percent dip for the Warsaw blue-chip index WIG20. "The management's forecast have always been conservative and raised in the previous years. The market takes that into consideration," analyst at Societe Generale Leszek Iwaszko said. KGHM added it saw average copper price in 2013 at $7,800 per tonne, slightly down from the level expected in 2012. The miner will publish its results for last year on March 1, with its chief executive already suggesting the bottom line should come in slightly above the 4.74-billion zloty target.