* Jan stocks to fall 4.7 pct from Dec to 3.07 mln T -survey * Output to fall to 1.61 mln T, down 10.9 pct -survey * Exports estimated up 12.4 pct at 1.56 mln T -survey * Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due Feb. 11 By Emily Chow KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of January are forecast to fall from the previous month's record high as production eases and exports increase, according to a Reuters survey. Falling inventories will add to the recovery in benchmark palm oil prices since last November when they fell to their lowest in three years. Palm futures were up 1.6 percent at 2,342 ringgit ($574.58) a tonne at the midday break on Thursday, the highest since June 29. Stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer of the edible oil, are forecast to fall 4.7 percent from the previous month to 3.07 million tonnes, based on the median estimate of eight planters, traders and analysts. This would be the first month of inventory declines after seven gains. In December, stocks rose to 3.22 million tonnes, a record high according to data on Refinitiv Eikon going back to January 2000."Exports are crucial in determining stocks," said a planter in the eastern Malaysian state of Sabah, adding that anticipated production declines in the first quarter of the year will contribute to an inventory drawdown in the coming months. "This is also a low seasonal production period, and with February being the Lunar New Year month, production may still fall," he said, referring to the national holiday when palm workers typically take extended leave. In January, production is forecast to ease for a third straight month, down 10.9 percent from December to 1.61 million tonnes, according to the poll. Palm oil production typically falls during the first quarter of the year. Additionally, the poll also showed Malaysia's January palm exports rising 12.4 percent from December to 1.56 million tonnes on stronger demand from Europe. "The better than expected recovery in exports was due to stronger demand from European Union countries," said Ivy Ng, regional head of plantations research at CIMB Investment Bank. Official palm oil data will be published by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board after 0430 GMT on Feb. 11. The median results from the Reuters survey put Malaysia's consumption in January at 280,515 tonnes. Breakdown of January estimates (in tonnes): Range Median Production 1,520,000 - 1,672,435 1,610,500 Exports 1,340,000 - 1,620,000 1,555,000 Imports 50,000 - 110,000 75,000 Closing Stocks 2,916,000 - 3,200,000 3,065,037 * Official stocks of 3,215,052 tonnes in December plus the above estimated output and imports give a total January supply of 4,900,552 tonnes. Based on the median of exports and closing stocks estimate, Malaysia's domestic consumption in January is estimated to be 280,515 tonnes. ($1 = 4.0760 ringgit) (Reporting by Emily Chow; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
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