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TREASURIES-Bonds rally, will weak jobs data help debt deal?
July 8, 2011 / 7:26 PM / 6 years ago

TREASURIES-Bonds rally, will weak jobs data help debt deal?

 * Treasuries rally as jobs data adds to economic fears
 * US CDS costs fall as some hope debt deal more likely
 * Rates futures rise as Fed expected on hold for longer
 (Adds comments, updates prices, rewrites throughout)
 By Karen Brettell
 NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices rallied
on Friday after a dismal jobs report renewed fears the economy
is slowing, and led to some speculation that lawmakers may now
be less likely to push through harsh spending cuts, or risk
harming the economy further.
 Jobs growth ground to a near halt in June as employers
hired the fewest workers in nine months, frustrating hopes that
data would start to show an improving economy into the second
half of the year. For details see [ID:nN1E7670C0].
 The report also came less than a month before the Treasury
is expected to reach its debt limit, which if not raised could
lead to a potentially catastrophic U.S. default.
 "There's a lot of crosscurrents here for fixed income
investors," said Gary Pollack, managing director at Deutsche
Bank Private Wealth Management in New York.
 "The economy remains weak as we enter the second half and
there are budget negotiations going on in Washington with
regard to further declines in government spending, which would
be negative for the economy," he said.
 Republicans are demanding an agreement to cut the country's
fiscal deficit be reached before raising the debt ceiling,
though Democrats fear that the sharp spending cuts they
advocate would further weaken the economy.
 The cost to insure Treasuries for five years using credit
default swaps dropped sharply on Friday in a sign investors may
see a debt deal as more likely after the weak jobs report.
 The CDS costs fell by 5 basis points to 50 basis points, or
$50,000 per year to insure $10 million in debt for five years,
according to data by Markit.
 They had risen 6 basis points this week to close at 55
basis points on Thursday, their highest closing level in almost
one and a half years, though the price still reflects a very
low probability of default.
 Anxiety of a recession also spurred a stampede into
short-term interest rates futures on Friday on expectations
that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero
into late 2012 to support the fragile economy.
 Rates contracts for 2012 delivery posted the strongest
one-day gain in more than four months.
 Lingering concerns over the European debt crisis also
propelled benchmark yields to their biggest single-week drop in
about three months, analysts said.
 "You have a double whammy working right now. They point to
these lower yields," said John Herrmann, senior fixed income
strategist at State Street Global Markets in Boston.
 Benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR were last up a point in
price to yield 3.02 percent, down from 3.14 percent late on
Thursday and the lowest yields since June 28.
 Thirty-year bonds US30YT=RR also rose 1-15/32 in price,
with yields testing 4.28 percent, their 50-day moving average
and the 38.2 percent retracement of the yield rise from August
2010 to January 2011. The yields fell from 4.37 percent on
 Possibly stemming Treasuries from rallying even further
were some concerns that $66 billion in new three-year, 10-year
notes and 30-year bonds risk low demand next week.
 This is because the auctions will be the first large test
of demand since the Federal Reserve ended its $600 billion bond
purchase program at the end of June.
 The rally was also reined in because U.S. primary dealers
had not bet heavily against Treasuries in advance of the
payrolls report, analysts said.
 Primary dealers -- Wall Street firms that deal directly
with the Federal Reserve -- slashed their short positions in
Treasuries last week. They held $26.87 billion in net short
positions in Treasuries as of June 29, $19.16 billion less than
the previous week, Fed data released late Thursday showed.
 (Additional reporting by Richard Leong in New York and Ann
Saphir in Chicago; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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