July 29, 2011 / 9:20 PM / 8 years ago

TREASURIES-Bonds soar on supply and recession worries

 * Govt may postpone debt sales if ceiling not extended
 * Lower-than-expected Q2 GDP growth raises recession fear
 * Ten-year note set for best performance since March, 2009
 (Adds analysts' quotes, updates prices)
 By Chris Reese
 NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices
soared on Friday on fears a U.S. default could trigger a
shortage of Treasuries and even push the world's largest
economy back into recession.
 The buying started with data showing the economy grew at an
even slower pace in the first half of the year than economists
had estimated.
 Bidding surged and 30-year bonds jumped more than 2 points
after Reuters reported that Treasury officials told Wall Street
banks the Treasury may have to delay or cancel a major round of
bond sales if Congress does not raise the nation's debt ceiling
by Aug. 2. For details see [ID:nN1E76S0C9].
 "A lot of factors converged to lead us higher today. You
got a gross domestic product number that was horrible, and that
spooked a lot of people -- once we get beyond this debt ceiling
issue we have got an economy that is really struggling," said
Marty Mitchell, head of government bond trading at Stifel
Nicolaus in Baltimore.
 The potential that the Treasury might postpone debt sales
in the event the debt ceiling is not extended by next Tuesday
bolstered Treasuries on concerns fund managers and short-term
traders might have to compete for tight supply for their
everyday operations.
 "There's a lot of demand for these issues, just kind of a
natural demand that always comes up," said Kim Rupert, managing
director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics
LLC in San Francisco. "So with less or truncated supply you
have a lot more demand chasing less supply."
 Benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR traded 1-9/32 higher in
price, their yields dipping to 2.79 percent, marking the lowest
in eight months and down from 2.95 percent late on Thursday.
Benchmark yields were set for the biggest single-day drop in
yield since March 18, 2009, when the Federal Reserve announced
a round of $300 billion in Treasuries purchases, known as QE1.
 "With the whole situation around the debt ceiling you've
got a lot of nervousness going into the weekend and any shorts
that have been in the market have covered up," Mitchell said.
 Efforts to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avert a
government default, so far unsuccessful, dragged on heading
into the weekend.
Full coverage of U.S. budget and debt      [nUSBUDGET]  
SCENARIOS-Obama options if no debt deal   [nN1E76O0QG]  
Graphics package              r.reuters.com/nud82s  
 Growth in gross domestic product -- a measure of all goods
and services produced within U.S. borders -- rose at a 1.3
percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce
Department said. In addition, output in the first quarter was
sharply revised down, to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent.
For details see [ID:nCAT005481].
 Weak U.S. growth in the first half of the year underscored
the reality that spending cuts tied to a debt ceiling increase
could topple the economy into recession.
 "Economic growth ... was much weaker than the government
had previously estimated and this opens the door for
potentially another round of quantitative easing from the
Federal Reserve," said Gary Thayer, chief macro strategist at
Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis.
 Thirty-year Treasury bonds US30YT=RR traded 2-11/32
higher in price to yield 4.12 percent, down from 4.26 percent
late on Thursday.
 Worries over the eventual outcome of a debt crisis in
Europe have also recently supported longer-dated U.S.
government debt prices, and the 30-year bond was on track for
its biggest monthly drop in yield since August 2010.
 (Editing by Dan Grebler)

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