May 24 - A look at the day ahead from Danilo Masoni.
Taper talk is not going away and nor is Bitcoin volatility. But the global economy continues to steam on and COVID-19 infections are dropping, seemingly having peaked even in India.
So as the last full week of May kicks off, markets don’t look eager to move beyond well-trodden trading paths, perhaps reflecting investors’ wariness but also holidays in many parts of Europe.
Stock futures in Europe are up and Wall Street too looks set to hold ground after Friday’s a mixed show. The dollar is languishing just off three-month lows and, at 1.62%, 10-year U.S. yields are at the midpoint of their 11-week range -- bond investors may keep powder dry ahead of a series of Treasury auctions and Friday’s U.S. core PCE inflation reading.
But there are several Fed speakers to look forward to on Monday, most notably Lael Brainard who is due to speak on central bank digital currencies against the backdrop of the bitcoin storm. There is also a virtual CoinDesk gathering, which will feature Ray Dalio and Cathie Wood.
Crypto enthusiasts might hope Wood will be able to soothe crypto markets; remember her prediction last week of bitcoin at $500,000? Currently though, the world’s biggest crypto coin is licking its wounds after falling as much as 17% on Sunday.
Cryptocurrency miners, including HashCow and BTC.TOP have halted their China operations after Beijing on Friday vowed further crackdowns on bitcoin mining.
Finally, Belarus dollar bonds are down as much as 0.7 cents after the government forced an airliner to land on Sunday, arresting an opposition-minded journalist on board and drawing condemnation from Europe and the United States.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:
* BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks
* Emerging market: central bank meetings in Indonesia, Nigeria, Ghana
* Auctions: U.S. 6-month and 3-month t-bills
* Fed speakers: Lael Brainard on CBDCs, Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Kansas City’s Esther George
Reporting by Danilo Masoni; editing by Sujata Rao
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