September 16, 2013 / 11:16 AM / 4 years ago

GRAINS-Soybeans fall 2 pct as rain tempers worries

* Soybeans' two-session losses at more than 3 pct
    * Rain forecasts ease yield fears, but won't help some soy
crops
    * Corn slips on reports of big yields


    By Rod Nickel and Julie Ingwersen
    WINNIPEG, Manitoba/CHICAGO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S.
soybeans fell 2 percent on Monday for the second straight
session as forecasts for more rain this week eased concerns
about declining U.S. harvest prospects and offset a
tighter-than-expected supply outlook from the government.
    Corn slipped on reports of big yields from the early U.S.
harvest, adding to a sharp drop since last Thursday's surprise
increase in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's production
forecast. Wheat eased under pressure from big U.S. supplies.
    U.S. weather models called for more rain later this week,
with temperatures forecast to be lower, analysts said, easing
stress on some late-planted soybeans that have endured intense
heat and sparse rainfall in the past month.
    But an expected 0.25 to 1.25 inches of rain across 60
percent of the Crop Belt will arrive too late to help most
soybean plantings, a meteorologist said. 
    "From a soil moisture standpoint, it will start to reverse
some of those deficits," said meteorologist Joel Widenor of the
Commodity Weather Group. "It's too bad it wasn't three or four
weeks ago."
    Some farmers are optimistic that the rains will help, said
Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics.
    "Based upon producer comments today and at the end of last
week, they see 20 to 25 percent of their bean fields viable
enough to be able to get help from this rain," he said. "A
follow-up rain mid-week or later is going to be useful as well,
as far as trying to build a bit more yield into the beans, and
maybe bigger beans in the pods."
    Funds also pressured soybeans by lightening their long
positions in the oilseed and buying corn to unwind spread trades
between the crops, said Sterling Smith, futures specialist at
Citigroup.
    "The soybean drop today is driven principally by funds
getting out of the way," he said early in the session.
    Technical selling also weakened soybeans, traders said.
    The USDA added to soybean supply concerns on Thursday by
making a larger-than-expected cut to its estimate for 2013/14
ending stocks, casting doubt on the scope for supply to be
replenished after last year's drought-hit harvest.
 
    Soybeans rose nearly 3 percent after the USDA estimates but
have since given up those gains on profit-taking and
more-favorable weather forecasts.
    Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans lost 2.4
percent, or 33-1/4 cents, at $13.48-1/4 a bushel.
    The U.S. soybean crush declined 5 percent last month to
110.502 million bushels, versus 116.338 million bushels in July,
National Oilseed Processors Association data showed on Monday.
 Analysts had forecast a monthly crush of 110.7
million bushels, according to a Reuters poll. 
    CBOT December corn slipped 0.5 percent, or 2-1/2
cents, to $4.56-1/2 a bushel. It fell in the past two sessions
after the USDA surprised the market by raising its crop
production forecast to a record high, despite unfavorable
weather. 
    The USDA on Tuesday will release data on how many acres
farmers were unable to plant last spring, which could result in
a reduction in planted acreage estimates for corn, Zuzolo said.
    "I still think they are about 1 to 1.2 million, maybe even
1.4 million acres too high on either harvested or planted
acreage (of corn), depending on how you look at it."    
    CBOT December wheat eased 1/4 cent to $6.41-1/4 a
bushel.
    Wheat has been curbed by weakness in corn but continues to
enjoy a sizeable premium to its fellow grain because of
generally brisk export demand so far this season.
    
 Prices at 1:30 p.m. CDT (1830 GMT)      
                              LAST      NET    PCT     YTD
                                        CHG    CHG     CHG
 CBOT corn                  456.50    -2.50  -0.5%  -34.6%
 CBOT soy                  1348.25   -33.25  -2.4%   -5.0%
 CBOT meal                  496.20     0.00   0.0%   18.0%
 CBOT soyoil                 42.22     0.00   0.0%  -14.1%
 CBOT wheat                 641.25    -0.25   0.0%  -17.6%
 CBOT rice                 1614.50     0.00   0.0%    8.6%
 EU wheat                   185.00    -1.25  -0.7%  -26.1%
 
 US crude                   106.58    -1.64  -1.5%   16.1%
 Dow Jones                  15,500      124   0.8%   18.3%
 Gold                      1314.46   -11.80  -0.9%  -21.5%
 Euro/dollar                1.3341   0.0049   0.4%    1.1%
 Dollar Index              81.2610  -0.1910  -0.2%    1.9%
 Baltic Freight               1651       15   0.9%  136.2%

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