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NORDIC POWER-Forwards slip on rainy outlook, coal
September 5, 2012 / 10:00 AM / 5 years ago

NORDIC POWER-Forwards slip on rainy outlook, coal

* Spot price for Thursday seen up to 27 euros/MWh
    * Front-quarter trades below marginal cost of coal power

    OSLO, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Nordic power futures slipped on
Wednesday morning on expectations of continued wet weather as
well as to falling costs of coal power production, traders said.
    The benchmark front-quarter contract for baseload
(24 hours) delivery fell by 20 cents to 37.05 euros ($46.54) per
megawatt hour (MWh) by 0900 GMT.
    "It's reasonable that we should go a bit down, because it is
still rather wet, and the marginal costs of coal power
production are down about 20 euro cents," a Sweden-based trader
said.
    "We can see the fourth-quarter contract traded as low as 36
euros or 35.5 euros, also because we've got two nuclear reactors
back in operation," the trader said.
    Short-run marginal costs of coal power production in the
fourth-quarter are expected to fall to 39 euros a MWh, analysts
at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon estimated.
    Georg Muller, a meteorologist at Point Carbon, said he
expected the Atlantic lows to dominate Scandinavian weather
during the coming days. 
    "Next week, high pressures will partly extend northwards
from the continent, but a stable dry period is not likely," he
added.
    The Nordic region relies on hydroelectricity for over 50
percent of its power generation, so changes in precipitation are
an important factor for price setting.
    At the far end of the curve, the Nordic contract for
baseload power delivery next year fell by 25 cents to
38 euros a MWh. 
    Brent crude hovered in a tight range near $114 a barrel on
Wednesday on caution ahead of a keenly awaited European Central
Bank meeting, while global growth concerns deterred buyers. 
    API2 coal swaps for 2013 fell by 25 cents to
$99.75 a tonne.
                
    SPOT PRICE 
    The Nordic day-ahead average power price for
Thursday delivery is expected to rise by 1 euro to 27 euros a
MWh from Wednesday on lower wind output and higher consumption,
analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon said.
    Combined wind output in Denmark and Sweden is expected to
fall to an hourly average of 2,180 MW, down by 1,600 MW, while
consumption is seen up by 710 MW to 39,100 MW on lower
temperatures.
    On the bearish side, Sweden's 984 MW Forsmark-1 nuclear
power plant is expected to ramp up output to 850 MW by Thursday.
    Another Swedish reactor, the 1,400 MW Okskarshamn-3, was
back in operation on Tuesday but was expected to have a few
short stops due to planned testing later in September.
($1 = 0.7961 euros)

 (Reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis; editing by Jane Baird)

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