April 3, 2013 / 1:36 PM / 5 years ago

TREASURIES-Prices gain after ADP data shows subdued job growth

* Market awaits U.S. payrolls report on Friday
    * ISM non-manufacturing index for March forecast at 55.8
    * ISM employment component to get attention

    By Ellen Freilich
    NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose
on Wednesday after a report by a payrolls processor said U.S.
private employers added 158,000 jobs in March, fewer than
economists had forecast. 
    The ADP National Employment Report said U.S. private sector
employment rose by 158,000 jobs in March, less than the Reuters
consensus forecast of 200,000. 
    The benchmark 10-year Treasury note, down 3/32
of a point before the report, was up 5/32 afterwards, allow its
yield to ease to 1.85 percent.
    The market's main interest in the ADP report is in trying to
figure out how closely it might foreshadow the strength or
weakness of the more comprehensive labor market data released by
the U.S. government in its monthly employment report due Friday.
    In this case, bonds appeared to price in more subdued
expectations for the March employment data from the U.S. Labor
Department due to the weaker-than-forecast ADP data.
    "Over the last five months - since Moody's took over from
Macroeconomic Advisors in compiling the data - the average
forecast miss between the initially reported private payroll
figures from the BLS and ADP has been only 6,000," said Joseph 
LaVorgna, managing director and chief U.S. economist at Deutsche
Bank Securities. "We are revising our forecast for March nonfarm
payrolls down 40,000 to 160,000."
    The market next turns its attention to the Institute for
Supply Management report on the non-manufacturing sector. The
index, due at 1400 GMT, is expected to read 55.8, according to a
Reuters consensus estimate, little changed from the February
reading of 56.0. Figures above 50 point to expansion.
    One focus will be on whether the ISM report's timely
employment index points to increased employment.
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