* Cenbank sees economic growth of 3-4 pct in 2012, 2013 * Carstens says rates could fall if global economy slows * Inflation seen falling below 4 pct by year-end By Michael O'Boyle and Patrick Rucker MEXICO CITY, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Weak global growth will crimp Mexico's economy during the next two years, making key economic reforms even more pressing, its central bank chief said on Wednesday. The Banco de Mexico forecast Latin America's second-largest economy would grow at a sluggish 3 to 4 percent this year and next and said risks were to the downside. Debt troubles in Europe and the United States could suppress demand for Mexico's exports in the coming years and lawmakers have failed to jump-start the economy with key economic reforms amid political infighting over the last 15 years. While major emerging market economies have averaged growth of more than 6 percent over the last 10 years, Mexico has struggled to keep its average rate above 2 percent. "Mexico could be growing more and creating more jobs if efforts were doubled in passing structural reforms, which are really needed since growth in advanced economies is not going to be very fast in the coming years," Banco de Mexico governor Agustin Carstens told a news conference. Mexico's rebound in 2010 from a deep recession lost steam last year. Meanwhile, the chances of passing long-debated energy, labor and tax reforms in the short-term are low as political parties jockey ahead of national elections in July. The central bank's first growth forecasts for 2013 put Mexico well below the 5.9 percent average the International Monetary Fund expects for emerging market economies in 2013, and also below the Latin American average. In their quarterly inflation report, policymakers also predicted a spike in inflation would be temporary and said inflation would remain between 3-4 percent through the end of next year. INFLATION IN CHECK? Inflation, which pierced the central bank's 4 percent ceiling in January for the first time in more than a year, should dip back below 4 percent before the end of 2012, Carstens said. The balance of risks to inflation is seen neutral. "Inflation expectations are very well anchored," he said. Deutsche Bank economist Fernando Losada said the report cemented his expectation for no change to the current 4.5 percent interest rate through 2012, and interest rate swaps show markets expect no change either. But Nomura Securities analyst Benito Berber said he thought the central bank was too optimistic about the inflation outlook and expected inflation to exceed 4 percent for much of the year. "I don't think Banxico makes a convincing case for annual inflation to be between 3 and 4 percent, I think that's very unlikely," Berber said. Carstens said while Mexico could cut rates if the external environment worsened, policymakers were also monitoring inflation risks closely. While Brazil and Chile have cut interest rates, Mexican central bankers have been split over the outlook for inflation as they brace for slower economic growth ahead. Policymakers at their last meeting in January were unanimous in holding rates but minutes from the meeting released early this month showed growing disagreement over inflation. The central bank said its local growth outlook could improve if data shows better-than-expected U.S. growth, or on a resolution of European debt worries. Economists see growth slowing from a median estimated 3.98 percent in 2011 to 3.20 pct in 2012, according to a Feb. 8 poll by Banamex. Growth figures for the last quarter of 2011, due on Thursday, are expected to show a deceleration.