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FACTBOX-Corporate bankruptcy, restructuring view for 2009

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 NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Some of the top U.S.
restructuring and bankruptcy advisors see a busy year ahead as
dwindling revenues and tight lending markets force companies
ranging from retailers to casinos and home builders to make tough
changes or shut their doors.
 Following are experts' comments on the outlook for the
restructuring industry, the lending environment and the sectors
that are most likely to struggle in 2009.
 BRYAN MARSAL, CO-CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, ALVAREZ & MARSAL,
NEW YORK:
 "I think there's going to be a tsunami of restructurings."
 "This is the time of the long winter. Two years of very tight
money -- bank financing -- and then two years of gradual pullout.
That's a four-year time horizon. Everyone talks this silliness
about the back half of '09. They're smoking something. They've got
to be kidding me. What are they seeing? We're seeing the long
winter coming in.
 "I think they (banks) are going to have significant category
hits, which are going to cause (them) to continue to be very
cautious about lending. In 2009, as they recharge their battery
and see that this is behind them; you will start to see lending,
beginning in 2010, to loosen up just a bit, not a lot."
 DAVID RESNICK, CO-HEAD OF INVESTMENT BANKING, ROTHSCHILD, NEW
YORK:
 "There's a level of uncertainty hanging over the entire
capital markets and until that starts to change, it's going to be
a difficult period for many companies, particularly those in
industries that are more severely challenged, like retail and
automotives, and anything GDP-related."
 "For retailers the first quarter is going to be very
difficult. Many of these companies have revolving credit
facilities and often the advance rates are higher during Christmas
because the inventory is fresher and lenders are willing to allow
the retailers to borrow more. Post-Christmas, those advance rates
in some cases snap back, so that creates a liquidity challenge.
That's why you are seeing so many sales and people trying to get
their inventories down. I think some retailers are going to run
into liquidity issues as they go through the year."
 BARRY RIDINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN OF US INVESTMENT BANKING, LAZARD,
NEW YORK:
 "When consumers cut back on spending it's going to negatively
affect several industries. We've already seen the effects on
restaurants, a number of which have filed for bankruptcy. I think
we're also likely to see a lot more retailers experience problems
in the coming months. In the automotive sector, the next few
months for both the OEMs (car makers) and the auto suppliers are
going to be critical. Another example of this consumer-led
restructuring cycle is the casino industry, which is almost
entirely being restructured."
 "2009 is going to be one interesting year."
 MARK COHEN, GLOBAL HEAD OF RESTRUCTURING AND WORKOUT,
DEUTSCHE BANK, NEW YORK:
 "I think people are oversimplifying how difficult it will be
and how long it will take for these companies to restructure ...
The vast majority of companies in distress will have to get
through the restructuring phase of delevering itself before it
will be in a position to sell itself."
 "To achieve a controlling position through a restructuring is
quite difficult, and laborious and you'll probably see more talk
about it than actual success."
 FRED CRAWFORD, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, ALIXPARTNERS, NEW
YORK:
 "It looks as though the acceleration of bankruptcy filings
that we saw in second half of 2008 is going to continue."
 "There are four to five (industries) that are standing out in
terms of our analysis -- auto parts, media and entertainment,
transportation industry and surprisingly, the packaging industry.
Anything that involves the creation of corrugated boxes or
polyurethane packages. Those companies that are, generally
speaking, a little smaller and have less ability to take a hit
because they're asset intensive industries, are particularly
vulnerable to a downturn in consumer demand."
 "You've got a fair amount of debt on smaller companies in the
trucking industry, so I expect that'll be a segment to get hit
pretty hard."
 CORINNE BALL, PARTNER AND CO-HEAD OF NY RESTRUCTURING AND
REORGANIZATION PRACTICE, JONES DAY, NEW YORK:
 "One thing people are worried about is commercial real
estate."
 "Companies may, in fact, permit their exclusivity to expire in
Chapter 11, stay there and work with their constituents on what
would be a more sensible exit. That probably will be a way of
waiting for a better M&A environment because right now it's not
good."
 "There may be some deals in which, to keep operating, they'll
change control for very, very little consideration. We've
certainly seen it in financials, we're going to see more."
 HENRY MILLER, CO-CHAIRMAN OF MILLER BUCKFIRE & CO, NEW YORK:
 "You have a whole different sector that most people don't talk
about, which is all of the others who have financing that is
maturing -- from mundane plain vanilla accounts receivable and
working capital financing to bonds to maturing term loans -- and
there is no credit market"
 "I think what you are going to find is it will create surprise
bankruptcies. And the situation where companies would typically
file for bankruptcies with some preparation and a DIP financing
that was ready to go so that the liquidity necessary to run the
business day to day would be available at least in bankruptcy
proceeding, now that is not necessarily clear. So you have uglier
situations of fire sales and potentially a lot more liquidation."
 MARK SHAPIRO, HEAD OF RESTRUCTURING AND FINANCE GROUP,
BARCLAYS CAPITAL, NEW YORK:
 "You're seeing a lot of contraction at a lot of companies on
the job front. If there is a continuation of job losses, you could
have a deterioration in the economy because consumer demand won't
be there. The big question is the government stimulus package that
is being discussed and the number of jobs that will be created."
 BILL WEINSTEIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, GORDON BROTHERS,
BOSTON:
 "I do believe that out-of-court (restructurings) will be more
common. We are a firm believer in the scenario where if you can
affect an out-of-court, you are better off. If all the parties of
interest are aligned, you can, in essence, do everything you need
to do out of court just as well as in court."
 JAMES SPRAYREGEN, PARTNER AND BANKRUPTCY ATTORNEY, KIRKLAND &
ELLIS, CHICAGO
 "There's going to be a premium on figuring out how to do
out-of-court restructurings. You have a lot of situations where
companies are generally healthy, they're just overlevered, and if
all the constituents can cooperate, we can save a lot on
transaction costs in getting an arrangement done without a court
proceeding."
 (Reporting by Chelsea Emery, Caroline Humer and Emily Chasan)


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