October 1, 2012 / 4:46 PM / 5 years ago

UPDATE 1-Brazil analyst raises soy crop view, lowers corn

* Celeres raises soy crop view to 79.08 mln tonnes

* Cites increased planted area

* Corn crop view lowered as soy price seen more attractive

* Planting started with nearly half the new crop sold (Adds details on forecast, corn estimate, sales and planting)

SAO PAULO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Brazilian farmers are in the early stages of planting what is expected to be an even bigger soybean crop than the record forecast in September, local analysts Celeres said on Monday.

In its third outlook on the new crop, Celeres said Brazil’s 2012/13 soy crop will reach 79.08 million tonnes, up nearly a million tonnes from the 78.1 million tonnes it forecast in early September. The forecast was raised after data showed planted area growing beyond previous estimates.

Soybean area, now in the early stages of being planted, will grow to a record 27.44 million hectares, up 1 percent from September’s estimate and up 9 percent from last year. Some of the added area will come from corn fields, Celeres said.

The No. 1 soybean producing state of Mato Grosso will account for most of the new soy area, adding an additional 11 percent to its soy area forecast at 7.78 million hectares.

All of the main producing states, such as Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and even lesser but still important producer states such as Minas Gerais and Bahia, will sow additional fields with soy this season, Celeres data showed.

In a separate report, Celeres said the country’s corn output was seen at 76.05 million tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes from its forecast in September due to decreased planted area. Farmers have been drawn to the better returns from soybeans at current prices, Celeres said.

Farmers have already sold 46 percent of the new soy crop now being planted, up from 26 percent of last year’s crop sold at this time in 2011, Celeres said. Producers have been motivated to lock in prices on forward sales of the crop that will be harvested in the first half of 2013.

The old soy crop of 66.3 million tonnes that ended harvest in May is 98 percent sold, up from 91 percent at this time a year ago, Celeres said.

Weather looks ready to contribute to record soybean output this year in Brazil, which suffered a drought last season that erased roughly 10 million tonnes of output potential. (Reporting by Reese Ewing and Patricia Monteiro; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick and John Wallace)

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