August 9, 2019 / 1:11 PM / 8 days ago

Instant View: Canada sheds 24,200 jobs in July, jobless rate rises to 5.7%

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada’s economy lost a net 24,200 jobs in July, both in full-time and part-time work, Statistics Canada said on Friday. The jobless rate edged up to 5.7%.

Market reaction: CAD/

LINK: here

DOUG PORTER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BMO

“Clearly it’s on the disappointing side of expectations. Of course, you can never read too much into any one month but this is the third setback in employment in the past five months. After consistently ringing up high-side surprises for the better part of a year in recent months, the tables look like they’ve turned on Canadian employment.”

“Even with the recent run of softness, employment is still up by 1.9% in the last year which is very strong, and the jobless rate is still below where it was a year ago. So I don’t think it completely changes the picture on the job front. There’s no disputing this is a disappointing report on a standalone basis.”

“Of course there’s quite a debate about what the Bank of Canada will do next and when they’ll do it. I do think at the margin this lands pretty heavily on the side of suggesting the bank will consider trimming interest rates at some point. Of course we have to wait and see what actually happens on the trade front in the next few weeks but this certainly is supportive of the doves’ view.”

SIMON HARVEY, FX MARKET ANALYST FOR MONEX EUROPE AND CANADA, LONDON

“At the moment, it looks like the market is definitely focusing on the negative side which is that it’s the first time the job growth has been negative consecutively for two periods since 2014. At the moment it looks like the Canadian labour market has reached a limit where the unemployment limit can’t break that 5.5%-5.4% level without wages going up and it also looks like geographical, structural issues are coming into play now in the Canadian labour market.”

DEREK HOLT, VICE PRESIDENT OF CAPITAL MARKETS ECONOMICS AT SCOTIABANK

“It’s an awkward start to the second half after the torrid pace of hiring in the first half. Losing jobs in July plays to the narrative that some of job gains were front-loaded and we face a more uncertain second half.”

“The Bank of Canada needs to tread carefully... There’s the very definite prospect that the domestic data starts to weaken in the third quarter after what I think were some pretty temporary drivers in the second quarter.”

“The door is open to easing. It’s not yet our house call; we have them on hold....If we wind up back weak again at the same time that trade tensions are escalating into the fall, the Bank of Canada has to have an open mind.”

Reporting by Nichola Saminather, Moira Warburton and Levent Uslu; Editing by Denny Thomas

0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below