DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration this week will mark the end of a globalized America, the head of the world’s largest political risk consultancy said on Thursday.
Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told Reuters’ Global Markets Forum that Trump’s administration will lead the United States away from world leadership responsibilities, signaling the end of a 70-year geopolitical era of American hegemony.
Here are excerpts from the conversation which took place on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos:
Question: Your 2017 risk report signaled Trump’s presidency as the coming of the G-Zero world, in which there is no global leader. What does this mean?
Answer: It was coming eventually, whoever the U.S. elected. Under Clinton it would have been more incremental, with the U.S. playing more of a role in determining the new order. But with Trump and America First, there’s a more direct break, a tipping point. And the international leaders are reacting accordingly.
Q: So will globalization survive 2017?
A: Globalization is continuing. That’s clear from Davos this year. But Americanization is over. The U.S. will be driving more bilateral trade and architecture, not multilateral or global. So there’s a good chance for new and expanded ties for the U.S. with a series of allies dependent on the American economy like Mexico, Canada, Japan, the UK, Israel. But the U.S.-China relationship is not so easy.
Q: Does this mean that British Prime Minister Theresa May can count on America’s support as she negotiates a Brexit?
A: Yes, support from the U.S. for a bilateral deal is a boost for May. Keep in mind that Trump said this week that not only did he support Brexit but that other countries should also leave the European Union. He’s getting close to actively supporting (French presidential candidate Marine) Le Pen. That’s an enormous shift for an American president and a spike in the transatlantic relationship.
Q: Any other major but overlooked risks to watch this year?
A: Keep an eye on North Korea and Taiwan. Also cyber security risks that affect state security and critical infrastructure. And U.S. overreaction to terrorist attacks on American assets.
(This interview was conducted in the Reuters Global Markets Forum, a chat room hosted on the Eikon platform. For more information on the forum or to join the conversation, follow this link: here)
Reporting by Yumna Mohamed in London. Editing by Jeremy Gaunt