ALMATY (Reuters) - The Kazakh tenge KZT= may strengthen against the dollar this month as monetary easing in the United States and Europe offsets concerns about the impact of slower global growth and trade wars, according to a Reuters poll.
Five out of nine participants in the poll, which was carried out Sept. 30 to Oct. 4, predicted that the currency would gain this month. Two analysts saw it trading unchanged at about 389 per dollar, and two said it would slip.
The 12-month outlook was bearish, with all nine analysts forecasting a weaker tenge. The Central Asian nation’s currency has slid 1.3% against the dollar so far this year.
Kazakhstan’s central bank hiked its policy rate in early September, giving the tenge a brief boost, but the currency then fell with prices of crude oil, a major export, when they dropped after a short-lived spike on Saudi Arabian output disruption.
“In the medium term, the expected negative impact on the exchange rate from slowing global trade and investment will be partly offset by the soft monetary conditions in the United States and the euro zone,” said Aigul Berdigulova, an analyst with the Eurasian Development Bank.
“The range of 384.00-388.50 (tenge per dollar) should persist for the rest of the year as only sudden political or economic turmoil could act as a game changer,” said Aibek Burabayev of ICBC Almaty.
Reporting by Mariya Gordeyeva, Writing by Olzhas Auyezov, Editing by Catherine Evans