May 19, 2011 / 3:18 PM / 8 years ago

FACTBOX: End of Fed's QE2 to hurt stocks, bonds

(Reuters) - Investors betting on a rise in stocks, bonds and commodities should prepare for a loud sucking sound in their portfolios next month when the Federal Reserve pulls the plug on its $600 billion stimulus program.

Following is a table of results from a poll taken May 16-18. 1. What is the likely impact of the end of QE2 on the following,

by end-September (Q3)? up / down / no impact

10-year T-note yield

40 said up

7 said down

17 said no impact


12 said up

38 said down

14 said no impact

S&P 500

12 said up

28 said down

20 said no impact


5 said up

36 said down

21 said no impact


6 said up

31 said down

24 said no impact

MSCI Emerging Markets equity index - MSCIEF

11 said up

27 said down

21 said no impact 2. Will markets broadly become more volatile when QE2 ends?


36 said yes

27 said no 3. What is the probability, in percentage terms, the Fed

conducts QE3?

Median 10 percent from a poll of 59 contributors

Forecasts ranged from 0 to 100 percent

List of contributors

Ameriprise Financial; Aberdeen Asset Management; Advantus

Capital Management; Avalon Partners; Bank of America Merrill

Lynch; Bank of New York; Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; Baring

Asset Management; BNP Paribas; Cantor Fitzgerald;

Citigroup; Columbia Management; Commerzbank; Credit Suisse;

D.A. Davidson & Co; Daiwa; Deutsche Bank Securities; Dwight

Asset Management; DZ Bank; Eaton Vance; Edmond de Rothschild

Asset Management; Fischer Francis Trees & Watts; FTN

Financial; Glenmede; GMO (Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co);

Handelsbanken; Hartford Investment Management; Haverford;

Hugh Johnson Advisors; ING Investment Management; Intesa

Sanpaolo; Janney Montgomery Scott; Jefferies & Co; John

Hancock Financial Services; JP Morgan; Landesbank Berlin;

LBBW; Lloyds Banking Group; Lord Abbett; LPL Financial;

MF Global; MFR; Mizuho; MTB Investment Advisors; Nomura;

Nordea; Northern Trust; Payden & Rygel; Prudential Fixed

Income; RBC; RBS; Shaker Investments; SMBC; Societe Generale;

Standard Chartered; Subodh Kumar & Associates; TCW Asset

Management; TD Securities; Thornburg Investment Management;

UBS; USAA Investment Management Co; Webush Morgan; Wells

Capital Management; WestLB.

Table complied by Sumanta Dey and Yati Himatsingka

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