Russia's oil export, refinery plans point to increase in output

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Ahead of a meeting with Saudi Arabia and other producers, Russia already plans to increase oil exports, its July-September schedule shows, which coupled with increasing refinery runs suggests Moscow is gearing up to raise production.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers are scheduled to meet on June 22-23 in Vienna to discuss a possible increase in output after more than a year and a half of coordinated cuts which have taken 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) out of the market.

Those cuts, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, having helped slash global oversupply and raised prices by almost $20 a barrel, but there are now calls, from Russia’s energy minister Alexander Novak and others, that the deal be re-examined.

Crude exports and transit from Russia is expected to rise to 63.34 million tonnes in the July-September quarter from 62.45 million planned for April-June, Russia’s export schedule shows.

That works out to an increase of around 20,000 bpd - not significant in itself - but comes alongside plans by Russian refiners to raise third-quarter throughput by 2.2 million tonnes versus the second quarter, energy ministry forecasts show.

Raising both would typically require a production increase.

Under the deal among OPEC and non-OPEC producers, Russia agreed to cut production by 300,000 bpd compared to its output in October 2016.

It has exceeded its production quota for the last three months, however, pumping an average 10.97 million bpd in May - or around 20,000 bpd more than agreed, ministry data showed. <O/RUS1>

Russia could quickly add back at least 300,000 bpd of production, the ministry has said.

Top producer Rosneft could increase output by 70,000 bpd in just two days, according to analysts who have recently visited the company.

Editing by Katya Golubkova and Jason Neely