September 23, 2009 / 9:57 PM / 10 years ago

2016 Games a toss-up, tracking websites suggest

CHICAGO (Reuters) - No solid favorite has emerged among the four cities vying to host the 2016 summer Olympics, according to websites that track such predictions, though Rio de Janeiro may have gained momentum.

With anticipation building ahead of the October 2 decision, International Olympic Committee president Jacques Rogge has said the vote in Copenhagen promises to be extremely close.

Three websites tracking predictions indicated Rio and Chicago might have a slight edge over rivals Madrid and Tokyo. said its BidIndex indicated a shift in momentum favoring Rio in early September.

“BidIndex shows that a shift in momentum is transforming the race — but the competition remains extremely close,” with less than four points out of 100 separating the contestants, the website said in a note.

Chicago’s bid was “on a bit of a roller-coaster ride,” with the city’s promise to provide a financial guarantee boosting its chances. Much has been made of whether President Barack Obama would interrupt his schedule and travel to Copenhagen to lobby for his hometown.

Madrid and Tokyo both suffered from region fatigue, said, noting Asia’s Beijing hosted last summer’s games and Europe’s London hosts in 2012.

On Dublin-based InTrade, which compiles actual wagers, Chicago was given a 50.6 percent chance of winning the Games, down from 65 percent last month.

Rio’s bid hit a peak that gave the city a 44.9 percent chance, though recent wagers led it to back off to 37 percent. Tokyo was given a 10 percent chance and Madrid 6.5 percent.

Speculation about the Olympic host was among the top topics on, where predictors make virtual wagers.

The site gave Chicago a 35 percent chance, Rio 28 percent, Madrid 19 percent and Tokyo 18 percent.

Editing by Kevin Fylan

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