November 30, 2016 / 5:43 PM / in a year

OPEC reaches first deal to cut oil output since 2008

(Reuters) - The world’s largest oil exporters agreed on Wednesday to cut output for the first time in eight years to erode a global supply overhang that has persisted for two years and halved the value of a barrel of crude. [O/R]

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries saidit would agree to limit crude oil output to a maximum of 32.5million barrels per day starting Jan. 1 for six months.

The cut was at the low end of production of a preliminaryagreement struck in Algiers in September, and reduces productionfrom a current 33.64 million bpd.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, has agreed to bearthe lion’s share of the cuts, but most member countries,including Iraq, which had initially refused to freeze itsoutput, will limit their production.

Iran, Libya and Nigeria were all given special dispensationnot to join in with the reduction, as the three are stillfighting to boost their exports and regain market share lost tointernational sanctions, or civil unrest and violence.

Mohammed al-Sada, the energy minister for Qatar, and currentpresident of OPEC, said key non-OPEC members had agreed to cutsof 600,000 bpd, of which Russia had committed to 300,000 bpd.

OPEC will meet its non-cartel counterparts to discuss theircontribution to the effort to limit output on Dec. 9.

Oil soared more than 10 percent to over $50 a barrel and its highest in a month, as investors prepared for the possibility that lower OPEC output would lead to a swifter rebalancing between global crude supply and demand.

Below are analyst comments on the OPEC announcement:

GOLDMAN SACHS:

“While the inclusion of non-OPEC producers makes this a bigger headline cut than was announced in Algiers, we believe that the catalysts for a further rally in prices will need to come from confirmation of participation by non-OPEC producers, evidence of compliance by OPEC producers and more clarity on what Iran has agreed to do given conflicting numbers in the official agreement.”

“We reiterate our view that this is a short duration cut, targeting excess inventories and not high oil prices, which would instead unleash a sharp production response both in the U.S. and in the rest of the world.”

MACQUARIE CAPITAL:

“The OPEC agreement meets or beats the criteria we were looking for in terms of size, tenor, and quality. Winners include (1) OPEC members in the short-term; (2) US E&Ps, (3) Simple refiners, and the (4) Petrochemical sector. Losers include (1) over the ST, complex refiners and (2) US natural gas prices given a likely resumption of meaningful associated gas growth. The rally in drillers and offshore is a false positive in our view and has created a good selling opportunity.”

ANDY BROGAN, GLOBAL OIL & GAS TRANSACTIONS LEADER, E&Y:“OPEC’s decision to set up an independent governance committee shows a new focus on discipline. That approach gives me more confidence that we’ll see OPEC members abide by the agreement made today. We won’t know the real impact on the market until those production cuts are made, however. Until then, as with decisions made at past meetings, we expect to see short-term market gyration.”

TORBJØRN KJUS, OIL MARKET ANALYST, DNB BANK ASA:

“The OPEC communique specifies the cuts per country. This was very positive for the oil price and makes the agreement strong. There will be a monitoring committee that will follow up on the promised cuts by country. This was also very positive. The deal was also made stronger by the OPEC president’s statement that secondary sources will be used to monitor the cuts. This means the published numbers will be more trustworthy.”

“If demand is weak and even falling, you do not give away market share to others, like you would do when the root-cause for the price weakness instead is coming from the supply side, which is the story now. This is why we think compliance might be weaker this time than in 2001-02 and in 2008-09.”

GARETH LEWIS-DAVIES, BNP PARIBAS COMMODITIES STRATEGIST:

They’ve come up with an agreement with which their politicalcredibility has been maintained and they’ve come up with anumber. The question is the degree of compliance.

“The question that was avoided was to what extent is OPEC‘scommitment to cut dependent on the ... 600,000 bpd (of cuts)from non-OPEC. We remain rather cautious over whether this is acut from current levels for a cut from proposed levels for 2017and, as a consequence, would not be real cuts.”

PAUL HORSNELL, HEAD OF COMMODITIES RESEARCH, STANDARDCHARTERED:

“If you compare it with the case of if there hadn’t been anagreement, quite clearly, it’s probably at the upper end of theexpectations of what was going to be possible at this particularmeeting. And all in all, one of OPEC’s better days.”

“It doesn’t say (the cuts are) contingent on non-OPEC. Itsays it’s reached an understanding with key non-OPEC producers,but clearly what’s involved in there is non-OPEC is supposed todo its bit. It’s in nobody’s interest here to be seen ascollapsing this ... For what it is at the moment, it lookspretty credible.”

HAMZA KHAN, HEAD OF COMMODITIES STRATEGY, ING:

“OPEC says all of the members have taken Indonesia’s levelupon themselves but they haven‘t. Does that mean the effectivecut is 700,000 bpd? If you look at the numbers, are they addingup? That’s what we’re trying to figure out.”

“We haven’t heard from the non-OPEC members and we don‘tknow where the other 300,000 bpd will come from (aside from the300,000 bpd which OPEC says Russia has committed to). It’s alittle bit strange for us.”

“The last two years have been full of atypical meetings butthis one was unusual. They basically talked themselves into acorner; everyone started saying OPEC will cease to be a viableorganisation if they don’t say anything, so they had to say something but it’s unclear what it means.”

CARSTEN FRITSCH, COMMODITY ANALYST, COMMERZBANK:

“It’s clear that OPEC is speaking with one voice. Non-OPECis not very important anymore ... If the OPEC cuts areimplemented, it means there will be a deficit in early 2017 asthe call on OPEC oil is 33.1 million barrels per day, according to the IEA.”

VIKTOR NOSSEK, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH, WISDOMTREE:

”The price of oil has surged today as OPEC finally acted toreduce production, implementing its first cut in eight years.However, while prices may climb further in the very near-term,we expect any gains will be short-lived, with US productionlikely to ramp up to exploit higher prices.

Put simply, OPEC has not solved the supply glut, and indeedthis merely shows how much Saudi Arabia’s position has weakenedwhen it comes to its role as the price maker in oil markets.With a more stable supply side situation now the norm thanks toUS shale production, any further upside for the oil price fromcurrent levels is unlikely to be sustainable, but that does notmean there will not be a spike in volatility around the price.”

MIHIR KAPADIA, CEO AND FOUNDER OF SUN GLOBAL INVESTMENTS:

“As expected, OPEC is also very keen for non-OPEC members to make a contribution of a 600K barrel reduction for the benefitof the oil industry. This is something that has to be respected and hopefully adhered to by the non-members as it is for thelargest benefit of all - something which cannot be burdened just on OPEC. We expect oil prices to be on course towards $55 verysoon which has been our forecast for end-2016 since February when it was trading at $28 per barrel.”

ANTHONY STARKEY, MANAGER ENERGY ANALYSIS, PLATTS ANALYTICS:

“This is a drastic shift in policy for OPEC, whose key members have argued about retaining market share being more important than supporting higher oil prices. This cut is obviously going to reduce their percentage of global market share relative to non-OPEC, especially when you shift Indonesia from the OPEC column to the non-OPEC column.”

ROB THUMMEL, MANAGING DIRECTOR AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER, TORTOISE CAPITAL:

“We feel OPEC’s announcement sets the table for the energy sector bringing stability to oil prices, and OPEC is relevant again but its compliance with the new stated production quota is key to bringing global inventory levels back in-line with historical levels. Despite OPEC’s production cut, OPEC’s spare capacity remains tight; therefore, low cost U.S. oil production is expected to be a critical supplier as future demand for crude oil rises.” 

CLEMENT THIBAULT, SENIOR EDITOR, INVESTING.COM:

“This deal won’t solve the global oil glut in the very short term. And there are still quite a few wildcards that might trigger the cancellation of this deal at any time - including Russia and other non-OPEC countries, as well as the necessity for specific measures that would monitor and guarantee the production cuts.” 

Reporting by Julia Payne, Sabina Zawadzki, Veronica Brown and Amanda Cooper in London and Bengaluru Commodities desk. Editing by Jane Merriman and Lisa Shumaker

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