NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence index jumped in November to 56.0 from a upwardly revised 40.9 in October, the private business research group reported on Tuesday.
JOHN DOYLE, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, TEMPUS CONSULTING, WASHINGTON
“It’s modestly better than expected and the Dow Jones (average) jumped up and the dollar lost slightly but in terms of the currency market it will not have much impact throughout the day. The overall risk trend is intact.”
“This is a huge rise in consumer confidence. It gets us back to second quarter levels and further underscores the dramatic move that we’ve seen in consumer spending. Generally when the consumer becomes happier, more confident, they’re generally more likely to dip their toes back into spending.
“Looking at third quarter GDP, the majority of the rise was due to consumption. Given the very sizable increase in sales on Black Friday followed by an exorbitant increase in sales on Cyber Monday it seems that things are coming together for more strength in the fourth quarter.
“The housing market remains depressed; manufacturing is on the brink; the labor market remains tight. But it seems consumers have reached some deleveraging fatigue and they’re ready to release some of that pent-up demand.”
“I’m surprised that we’re surprised and that markets got such a nice pop on it. But all you had to do was look at Black Friday sales to see that it would be strong. I don’t know how long the impact will last, but it did give us a nice pop, especially coming on the growing optimism that a European deal will be done.”