(Reuters) - For the first time in two years, U.S. oil companies are beginning to forecast stagnating, or even lower, production. Still, their forecasts are less severe than most estimates.
According to a Reuters analysis, based on forecasts from 18 shale oil-oriented firms released over the past several weeks, oil and gas output is expected to fall 300,000 barrels or equivalent per day (boepd) this year, which equates to a 5.6 percent decline from 2015.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects overall U.S. crude oil production to decrease by 700,000 barrels per day, or 7.5 percent from 2015 levels.
Not accounting for production from Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, EIA expects overall production to fall nearly 11 percent.
Reuters calculations show that production is expected to decline by about 6 percent if eight of the 18 companies that have operations outside the shale patch are excluded.
Only two of the 18 firms analyzed by Reuters expect to produce more in 2016. This is in sharp contrast to last year, when increased efficiencies and lower service costs helped companies ramp up output even at lower levels of spending.
Production at the same companies rose nearly 10 percent on average in 2015, after factoring in a fall in output at 7 companies.
Below is a compilation of the 18 companies’ production forecasts for the year.
All figures are Reuters estimates or calculations based on company data. Midpoints were used in cases where company disclosed a forecast range. Most companies forecast percentage change for 2016; Reuters calculated 2016 output estimates based on reported 2015 data.
Company 2016 Pct Change Absolute
production vs 2015 Change
Occidental Petroleum Corp 688,040 3% 20,040
Anadarko Petroleum Corp 819,280 -2% -16,720
Apache Corp 443,000 -9% -43,775
EOG resources Inc 528,750 -7.60% -43,450
Devon Energy Corp 615,500 -9.50% -64,500
Hess Corp 340,000 -7.60% -28,000
Marathon Oil Corp 407,340 -7% -30,660
Murphy Oil Corp 182,500 -12% -25,403
Denbury Resources Inc 66,000 -10% -6,861
Continental Resources 200,000 -9.80% -21,700
Whiting Petroleum Corp 133,000 -18.50% -30,200
Pioneer Natural Resources 224,400 10% 20,400
Concho Resources Inc 139,673 -2.50% -3,583
EP Energy Corp 94,000 -14% -15,700
Oasis Petroleum 47,500 -6% -2,977
Energy XXI Ltd 54,500 -7% -4,400
Energen Corp 54,437 -1.70% -960
Halcon Resources Corp 40,504 -2.50% -1,038
Reporting by Bengaluru newsroom; Editing by Tomasz Janowski