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Traders bet Clinton will win Ohio, lose nomination
February 26, 2008 / 11:18 PM / 10 years ago

Traders bet Clinton will win Ohio, lose nomination

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Traders on the Intrade political predictions market were betting on Tuesday that Hillary Clinton would win the Ohio primary next week but lose Texas and the race for the Democratic presidential nomination to rival Barack Obama, trading data showed.

Traders on the Dublin-based exchange gave Obama, the Illinois senator, an 83.7 percent chance of winning the race to be the Democratic presidential candidate in the November general election, versus a 17.1 percent chance for Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady.

Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a real-money exchange run by professors at the University of Iowa, gave Obama an 80.4 percent chance of winning the nomination, compared to 18 percent for Clinton, trading data showed.

Prediction exchanges give traders an opportunity to buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are structured so that prices can be read as the percent likelihood of the event happening.

Studies of the prediction markets have shown they have an accuracy comparable to that of public opinion polls.

Traders on Intrade gave Clinton a 56 percent chance of winning the Ohio Democratic contest and a 47.7 percent for Obama.

But Obama was a huge favorite to win the Texas primary election, with traders giving him a 71.9 percent chance of winning, versus 28 percent for Clinton.

The Iowa market does not offer contracts on individual state races.

A string of state electoral victories over the past month has given Obama a lead over Clinton in the number of committed delegates to the convention this summer that will ultimately choose the Democratic presidential candidate.

As a result, analysts say Clinton has to win the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio in order to have a chance of catching up.

Editing by Bill Trott

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