September 13, 2018 / 1:26 PM / in 2 months

U.S. forecaster sees 50-55 percent chance of El Niño during fall

(Reuters) - There is a 50-55 percent of the El Nino weather pattern emerging during the fall, further increasing to 65-70 percent in winter, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday.

Last month, the weather forecaster pegged the chances of the El Niño emergence at 60 percent during the fall and 70 percent during winter 2018-19.

“The forecasters also favor El Niño formation during the fall, and are leaning toward the more conservative model guidance that indicates a weak El Niño event,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in a monthly forecast.

The last El Niño, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years, occurred from around 2015 to 2016 and caused weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods.

Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Bernadette Baum

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