April 1, 2019 / 4:34 PM / 24 days ago

TREASURIES-U.S. yields hit 1-week highs on upbeat factory data

 (Updates market action, adds quote, table, graphics)
    * U.S. manufacturing activity rebounds in March - ISM
    * China's factory growth resumes for first time in four
months
    * U.S. retail sales fall short of expectations in February
    * U.S. 3-month, 10-year yield curve steepest in 2 weeks

    By Richard Leong
    NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose to
one-week peaks on Monday as encouraging data on manufacturing
activity reduced fears about a looming U.S. recession, spurring
some investors to scale back their safe-haven holdings of bonds.
    The bond market's wobbly start to the second quarter
followed a solid first quarter, driven by worries about a global
economic slowdown and the Federal Reserve signaling it would not
raise interest rates in 2019.
    "We are going from a bad situation to a less bad situation.
The (manufacturing data) had a impact for sure," said Ellis
Phifer, senior market strategist at Raymond James in Memphis,
Tennessee.
    The Institute for Supply Management said its index on U.S.
domestic factory activity rose to 55.3 in March, higher than
what analysts polled by Reuters had expected.
    China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly returned to growth
for the first time in four months in March, data showed earlier
on Monday. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) expanded at the strongest pace in eight months,
rising to 50.8 from 49.9 in February.
    At 12:06 p.m. (1606 GMT), the yields on benchmark 10-year
Treasury notes jumped 7.1 basis points to 2.4849
percent. It reached 2.49 percent, the highest in more than a
week.
    Last week, 10-year yields fell to 2.340 percent, which was
their lowest levels in 15 months. 
    On March 22, they fell below three-month bill rates
 for the first time since 2007.
    The inversion between three-month rates and 10-year yields
fed speculation about a U.S. recession.
    This yield curve phenomenon preceded each recession in the
past 50 years.
    With 10-year yields back above three-month rates since
Friday, analysts said the chances of a looming recession have
faded a bit as data still suggest the economic expansion will
likely persist in 2019.
    Still the surprise drop on U.S. retail sales in February
reinforced the view of a deceleration in economic activity in
the first quarter. 
    Lingering economic worries, analysts say, will limit the
rise in bond yields following a solid first-quarter when
Treasuries generated 2.1 percent total return based on data from
Barclays and Bloomberg.
    Treasuries trailed a blockbuster quarter for Wall Street
where the S&P 500 jumped 13.1 percent, which was the
strongest quarterly gain since third quarter of 2009.
April 1 Monday 12:03PM EDT/ 1603 GMT
                               Price                   
 US T BONDS JUN9               148-11/32    -1-10/32   
 10YR TNotes JUN9              123-168/256  -0-144/25  
                                            6          
                               Price        Current    Net
                                            Yield %    Change
                                                       (bps)
 Three-month bills             2.35         2.3961     -0.004
 Six-month bills               2.3725       2.4405     0.000
 Two-year note                 99-218/256   2.3265     0.053
 Three-year note               100-68/256   2.2812     0.057
 Five-year note                99-38/256    2.3065     0.063
 Seven-year note               99-20/256    2.3939     0.073
 10-year note                  101-52/256   2.4866     0.073
 30-year bond                  102-84/256   2.8831     0.063
                                                       
   DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS                                 
                               Last (bps)   Net        
                                            Change     
                                            (bps)      
 U.S. 2-year dollar swap        11.50         0.00     
 spread                                                
 U.S. 3-year dollar swap         8.75        -0.25     
 spread                                                
 U.S. 5-year dollar swap         5.00         0.00     
 spread                                                
 U.S. 10-year dollar swap        0.00         0.00     
 spread                                                
 U.S. 30-year dollar swap      -23.00         0.75     
 spread                                                
 
    
          

    
 (Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
  
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