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US recession risk still below 50 pct-research group
September 5, 2007 / 3:27 PM / 10 years ago

US recession risk still below 50 pct-research group

NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The risk of a U.S. recession rose in the last month but remains well below 50 percent, Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, said on Wednesday.

“While it suggests the probability of a recession has gone up in the last month it is still well below 50 percent,” Prakken told Reuters. “It’s a slightly higher higher risk than it was a month ago but it’s still not a dominant risk.”

Prakken also said Wednesday’s ADP jobs report, which showed hiring by private employers ran at its slowest rate in four years in August, was likely to mean that Friday’s non-farm payrolls report would show overall job growth of around 60,000. That would be well below economists’ expectations of 110,000, according to a Reuters poll.

The ADP employment report was jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

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