(Rewrites throughout, updates prices, adds comments)
Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Tuesday, ending at their best level since December 2018
and recording their fifth consecutive month of gains, in response to lowered production forecasts as traders
monitored Hurricane Ida's impact on demand.
"The production numbers are still very low, and at these levels, it is hard for prices to fall much, and they
have plenty of room to go up," said John Abeln, an analyst at Refinitiv.
U.S. production is forecast to dip to 89.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week from 92.5 bcfd last
week.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery rose 7.2 cents, or 1.7% to settle at $4.377 per million
British thermal units, their highest close since December 2018, despite falling as much as 2% earlier in the
session on cautiousness over Ida's impact to demand.
The contract was up about 12% for the month.
In August, "production numbers were higher, but demand numbers were up even higher. High international gas
prices should continue to support that," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
Data provider Refinitiv said total U.S. production has averaged 91.7 bcfd so far in August, versus 91.6 bcfd
in July. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
With European and Asian gas both trading over $16 per mmBtu, compared with just over $4
for the U.S. fuel, analysts have said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the liquefied natural gas
(LNG) the United States can produce.
With a cooler season around the corner, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would
slide from 94.3 bcfd last week to 92.2 bcfd this week, as power generators burn less of the fuel with air
conditioning demand easing.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Aug 27 Aug 20 Aug 27 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Aug 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +31 +29 +36 +53
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,882 2,851 3,450 3,093
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -6.8% -6.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2020 (2016-2020)
Henry Hub 4.30 4.24 2.34 2.13 2.66
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 16.93 16.65 2.83 3.24 5.19
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 17.72 17.70 3.46 4.22 6.49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 11 10 16 16 17
U.S. GFS CDDs 139 148 158 152 145
U.S. GFS TDDs 150 158 174 168 162 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 92.5 89.4 90.0 89.2 82.2
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.5 8.1
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 99.8 96.6 97.1 96.7 90.5
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 4.9
U.S. LNG Exports 10.6 10.6 10.6 3.3 2.7
U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5
U.S. Residential 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.3
U.S. Power Plant 39.5 37.3 33.0 37.5 38.2
U.S. Industrial 20.9 21.0 20.9 21.5 21.0
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.5
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 75.2 73.1 68.6 73.9 73.5
Total U.S. Demand 94.3 92.2 87.6 85.4 83.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 4.25 4.35
Transco Z6 New York 3.98 3.86
PG&E Citygate 5.48 5.52
Dominion South 3.83 3.78
Chicago Citygate 4.12 4.19
Algonquin Citygate 4.08 4.02
SoCal Citygate 6.87 6.82
Waha Hub 4.17 4.10 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 50.75 44.25
PJM West 38.50 41.50
Ercot North 100.00 53.50
Mid C 44.07 51.32
Palo Verde 58.00 75.50
SP-15 59.25 68.75
(Reporting by Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Cynthia Osterman)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.