(Adds closing prices)
July 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 4% on Monday to a three-week low as
output increases and stockpiles remain about 16% over the five-year average.
Some analysts said the market was starting to write off the rest of the summer after prices dropped
about 5% last week even though this is the hottest time of year and the weather is expected to remain
hotter-than-normal through at least early August.
Front-month gas futures fell 7.7 cents, or 4.5%, to settle at $1.641 per million British
thermal units, their lowest close since June 26.
Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 88.4 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in July, up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the all-time
monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November. Traders noted output was rising as EQT Corp boosted
production in Appalachia.
As consumers crank up their air conditioners, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports,
will rise from 92.5 bcfd this week to 94.1 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's outlook on
Friday.
Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 3.3 bcfd (34% utilization) so far in July,
down from a 20-month low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record 8.7 bcfd in February. Utilization was about
90% in 2019.
U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, rose as consumers in neighboring countries cranked up their air
conditioners.
Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.4 bcfd so far in July, up from 2.3 bcfd in
June, but still below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports to Mexico
averaged 5.56 bcfd so far this month, up from 5.44 bcfd in June and on track to top the record 5.55 bcfd
in March.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Jul 17 Jul 10 Jul 17 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Jul 17
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +42 +45 +44 +37 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 1 1 2 4 2
U.S. GFS CDDs 246 244 220 206 202
U.S. GFS TDDs 247 245 222 210 204
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 88.0 89.1 88.8 90.3 78.1
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.0 6.8 6.8 8.1 8.2
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 95.0 96.0 95.6 98.4 86.5
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.0
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.1 4.2
U.S. LNG Exports 3.4 3.9 4.4 6.1 2.1
U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
U.S. Residential 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
U.S. Power Plant 43.3 44.7 45.7 40.4 37.2
U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.4 21.5 21.5 20.3
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 79.2 80.6 81.7 76.4 72.0
Total U.S. Demand 90.8 92.5 94.1 90.3 80.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.79 1.79
Transco Z6 New York 1.73 1.57
PG&E Citygate 2.42 2.49
Dominion South 1.32 1.28
Chicago Citygate 1.69 1.70
Algonquin Citygate 1.81 1.44
SoCal Citygate 1.83 1.96
Waha Hub 1.46 1.54 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 25.75 20.75
PJM West 38.50 36.25
Ercot North 27.50 24.50
Mid C 30.10 14.58
Palo Verde 37.75 35.50
SP-15 33.50 27.50
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski and Jonathan Oatis)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.