June 22, 2020 / 7:11 PM / 2 months ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas little changed as rising output offset higher demand

 (New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments to close)
    June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Monday as rising daily output
offset forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two
weeks.
    Front-month gas futures fell 0.5 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $1.664 per million British
thermal units.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged just 87.7 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) in June, down from a 16-month low of 88.2 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd
in November. On a daily basis, however, output hit a five-week high of 88.4 bcfd over the weekend, up
from a 19-month low of 85.7 bcfd in late May.
    With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from 84.8
bcfd this week to 86.6 bcfd next week. That confirms Refinitiv's warmer-than-usual projection but was
slightly lower than its outlook on Friday.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants averaged just 4.0
bcfd (41% utilization) in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a record high of 8.7
bcfd in February. Utilization was about 90% in calendar 2019.
    On a daily basis, however, LNG exports were on track to rise to 4.1 bcfd on Monday from a 14-month
low of 3.6 bcfd last week.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, are rising as North American consumers crank up their air
conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.3 bcfd in June, up from a seven-month low of
2.2 bcfd in May but still well below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports
to Mexico averaged 5.3 bcfd this month, up from 4.8 bcfd in May but shy of the record 5.6 bcfd in March.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jun 19         Jun 12       Jun 19     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jun 19    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +97            +85          +103        +73      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              2              1            5           7            7
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             215            220          193         188          176
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             217            221          198         195          183
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.0           88.2         88.1        90.9         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.8            6.2          6.3         7.2          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.8           94.5         94.4        98.1         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2            2.3          2.2         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.2            5.3          5.2         5.3          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.8            4.0          4.1         5.9          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.4          4.3         4.4          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.8            3.5          3.5         3.6          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          30.5           37.5         39.4        34.1         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.4           21.3         21.4        21.3         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8            1.9          2.0         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    66.5           73.2         75.1        69.8         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         77.8           84.8         86.6        83.2         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.49           1.51                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.44           1.41                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.24           2.24                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.35           1.31                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.52           1.48                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.58           1.61                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.57           1.68                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.30           1.31                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             25.75          23.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                25.50          23.00                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             20.50          18.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   13.00          14.06                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              16.00          21.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   16.25          21.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Paul Simao)
  
 
 
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below