(Adds latest prices)
Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 10% on Monday to a seven-week low on
forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected due to a decline in
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Gas flows to LNG export plants dropped because of planned maintenance at Dominion Energy Inc's
Cove Point in Maryland, the continued outage at Cameron in Louisiana and as some ships steer
clear of Tropical Storm Beta, which is expected to lash the Texas and Louisiana coasts this week.
Front-month gas futures fell 21.3 cents, or 10.4%, to settle at $1.835 per million British
thermal units (mmBtu), their biggest one-day percentage drop since January 2019 to their lowest close
since July 31.
That drop puts the front-month down 33% since hitting an eight-month high of $2.743 per mmBtu on
Aug. 28 and boosted the premium of November futures over October to a record high of 89
cents.
Despite the recent drop in the front-month, gas speculators last week increased their net long
positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for the seventh time in eight weeks
to their highest since May 2017 on expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds once
state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns.
Those added long positions came despite expectations stockpiles will hit record highs by the end of
October, which should remove lingering concerns about price spikes and gas shortages this winter.
Data provider Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to
slide to a two-week low of 5.2 bcfd on Monday from a four-month high of 7.9 bcfd last week.
LNG feedgas has averaged 5.6 bcfd so far in September. That was the most in a month since May as
global gas prices rise, making U.S. gas more attractive.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Sep 18 Sep 11 Sep 18 average
(Actual) (Actual) Sep 18
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +74 +89 +97 +80 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 40 45 37 52 67
U.S. GFS CDDs 88 76 137 91 75
U.S. GFS TDDs 128 121 174 143 142
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 86.4 86.0 86.0 93.7 79.7
U.S. Imports from Canada 5.7 5.7 6.1 8.1 8.1
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 92.2 91.7 92.1 101.8 87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.5 2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 4.5
U.S. LNG Exports 6.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 2.1
U.S. Commercial 4.9 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.7
U.S. Residential 4.1 4.6 4.6 3.9 3.7
U.S. Power Plant 33.8 30.9 32.5 33.8 32.0
U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.2 20.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 70.7 68.4 70.2 69.9 67.4
Total U.S. Demand 85.4 82.1 84.1 84.3 76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.56 1.65
Transco Z6 New York 1.04 0.87
PG&E Citygate 3.30 3.31
Dominion South 0.87 0.83
Chicago Citygate 1.46 1.64
Algonquin Citygate 0.95 1.08
SoCal Citygate 2.24 2.53
Waha Hub 0.98 0.97 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 14.75 20.25
PJM West 16.50 18.75
Ercot North 17.00 20.00
Mid C 29.19 31.50
Palo Verde 24.50 31.25
SP-15 27.00 35.50
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Timothy Gardner)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.