(Adds closing price)
Feb 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 1% on Tuesday, helped by forecasts for cooler
weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks and a 10% jump in European gas futures that could
keep U.S. liquefied natural gas exports near record highs.
Front-month gas futures for March delivery rose 6.7 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $4.498 per million
British thermal units (mmBtu).
"It's been the combination of the cold weather and of course the tensions between Russia and Ukraine
that's helping," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "From a global perspective
with natural gas prices in Europe so strong, it's going to keep upward pressure on U.S. prices."
Data provider Refinitiv estimated 383 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48
U.S. states. The normal is 358 HDDs for this time of year.
Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 119.9 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) this week to 123.2 bcfd next week as temperatures drop. European prices rose as tensions
between Russia and Ukraine escalated after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern
Ukraine.
Britain on Tuesday imposed sanctions on Gennady Timchenko and two other billionaires with close links to
Vladimir Putin, while Germany halted the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the
flow of Russian gas direct to Germany.
The United States and Europe have said they would sanction Russia if it invaded Ukraine. This could prompt
Russia to cut exports to Europe, where Russia provides around 30%-40% of gas supplies, about 16.3 bcfd in
2021.
Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.6 bcfd so far in
February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd.
"We expect a strong desire to beef up inventories through Asia and Europe during the coming months to
maintain US LNG exports at a capacity pace regardless of Ukrainian developments," advisory firm Ritterbusch
and Associates said in a note.
Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to
94.0 bcfd in January and 93.2 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several
producing regions earlier in the new year.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Feb. Feb. 11 Feb. 18 average
18(Forecast) (Actual) Feb. 18
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -145 -190 -324 -166
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,766 1,911 1,991 1,996
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -11.5% -11.6% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2021 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub 4.55 4.46 2.92 3.73 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 25.98 23.72 6.14 16.04 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 23.81 24.51 7.36 18.00 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 372 - 312 348 350
U.S. GFS CDDs 11 - 8 10 8
U.S. GFS TDDs 383 - 320 358 358 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 94.9 94.7 95.1 83.3
U.S. Imports from Canada 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.9
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 103.9 103.6 104.1 92.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.4 5.4 5.5 4.8
U.S. LNG Exports 13.0 12.0 11.9 4.7
U.S. Commercial 16.4 16.0 16.9 15.6
U.S. Residential 26.5 26.6 28.0 26.1
U.S. Power Plant 25.1 24.8 25.4 26.3
U.S. Industrial 25.0 24.8 25.2 24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 100.4 99.7 103.0 100.3
Total U.S. Demand 121.7 119.9 123.2 112.5 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Feb 25 Feb 18 Feb 11 Feb 4 Jan 28
Wind 18 13 12 11 9
Solar 3 3 3 2 2
Hydro 7 7 7 6 7
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1
Natural Gas 28 31 33 33 35
Coal 20 23 23 25 26
Nuclear 21 20 20 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 4.61 4.57
Transco Z6 New York 4.60 4.55
PG&E Citygate 4.96 4.94
Dominion South 4.00 4.11
Chicago Citygate 4.37 4.42
Algonquin Citygate 8.60 7.76
SoCal Citygate 4.67 4.58
Waha Hub 3.98 4.20
AECO 4.72 3.76 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day
New England 108.2 69.25
PJM West 38.00 32.75
Ercot North 34.50 44.75
Mid C 39.92 27.75
Palo Verde 27.50 36.00
SP-15 28.00 35.50
(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru
Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Will Dunham)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.