for-phone-onlyfor-tablet-portrait-upfor-tablet-landscape-upfor-desktop-upfor-wide-desktop-up

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas jumps 9% to 13-yr high on rising air conditioning use

 (Adds latest prices, quote)
    June 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 9% to a 13-year high on Monday on forecasts for
hotter weather and higher demand than previously expected, a decline in output, rising liquefied natural gas
(LNG) exports and record power demand in Texas.
    "The front-month contract is racing higher ... following signs of stumbling dry gas production readings
and intensifying heat forecasts for mid-to-late June," analysts at EBW Analytics said in a report.
    Power demand in Texas, meanwhile, is set to break the all-time record this week, far ahead of the hottest
days of summer, testing the resilience of the state's power grid after issues earlier this year and last
year's days-long blackout during a deep freeze.
    Front-month gas futures for July delivery rose 79.9 cents, or 9.4%, to settle at $9.322 per million
British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since August 2008. That was the contract's biggest daily
percentage gain since mid February.
    U.S. gas futures were up about 151% so far this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand
for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine
stoked fears that Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe.
    Gas was trading around $26 per mmBtu in Europe and $24 in Asia.

    In addition, traders said U.S. futures have soared in recent months due to low U.S. gas stockpiles - about
15% below normal for this time of year - and high U.S. coal prices, which make it uneconomical for
electric companies to switch from gas to coal for power generation.
        
    TOP PRODUCER 
    U.S. futures lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world's top producer with all
the gas it needs for domestic use, while capacity constraints inhibit additional LNG exports.
    Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.7 billion cubic
feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in
December 2021.
    With the coming of hotter summer weather, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including
exports, would rise from 87.1 bcfd this week to 90.0 bcfd next week to keep more air conditioners humming. The
forecasts for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday.
    The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.8 bcfd so far in June from 12.5
bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.6
bcfd of gas into LNG.
    The United States, which will not be able to produce much more LNG anytime soon, has worked with allies to
divert exports from elsewhere to Europe to help European Union countries and others break dependence on
Russian gas.
    Russia kept pipeline exports to Europe at around 6.8 bcfd on Sunday and Saturday on the three mainlines
into Germany: North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the
Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. That compares with an average of 11.6 bcfd in June 2021.

    Gas stockpiles in Northwest Europe - Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands - were
about 9% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, and down from 39% below the five-year
norm in mid-March, according to Refinitiv. Storage was currently about 46% of full capacity.
    That is healthier than U.S. inventories, which were around 15% below their five-year norm.

                 
                                              Week ended     Week ended     Year ago   Five-year        
                                                 Jun 3         May 27        Jun 3      average    
                                              (Forecast)      (Actual)                   Jun 3     
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):         +96            +90          +98         +100          
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):             1,998          1,902        2,397       2,339          
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average       -14.6%         -15.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)   Current Day     Prior Day    This Month  Prior Year   Five Year
                                                                           Last Year    Average      Average
                                                                                          2021     (2017-2021)
 Henry Hub                                       8.98           8.52          3.27        3.73        2.89
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                   26.44          26.23        10.27       16.04        7.49
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                        24.02          24.02        11.58       18.00        8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                                     
 Two-Week Total Forecast                      Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year      30-Year
                                                                                          Norm        Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                     8             12            5           15          18
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                    186            166          182         150          144
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                    194            178          187         165          162 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                                  
                                              Prior Week    Current Week   Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                       Last Year   Average For Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                    95.5           94.7          95.0        93.1        84.6
 U.S. Imports from Canada                         7.4            7.5          7.4         7.8          7.7
 U.S. LNG Imports                                 0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                               102.9          102.2        102.4        99.9        92.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd)                                                                                     
 U.S. Exports to Canada                           2.7            2.7          2.7         2.2          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                           6.0            6.0          6.1         6.7          5.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                                12.8           12.7          12.5        9.2          4.3
 U.S. Commercial                                  4.6            4.5          4.4         4.5          4.7
 U.S. Residential                                 4.1            3.7          3.6         3.8          4.3
 U.S. Power Plant                                28.2           30.1          33.1        36.1        32.8
 U.S. Industrial                                 20.7           20.7          20.9        20.6        20.9
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                  4.7            4.7          4.7         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                           1.7            1.7          1.8         1.7          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                          64.2           65.7          68.7        71.5        69.3
 Total U.S. Demand                               85.7           87.1          90.0        89.6        80.9 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA                                                
                                              Week ended     Week ended    Week ended  Week ended  Week ended
                                                Jun 10          Jun 3        May 27      May 20      May 13
 Wind                                              8             12            12          12          15
 Solar                                             6              4            4           4            4
 Hydro                                             8              7            7           7            7
 Other                                             2              2            2           2            2
 Petroleum                                         0              0            0           0            0
 Natural Gas                                      39             36            37          37          34
 Coal                                             21             19            20          20          18
 Nuclear                                          21             19            19          19          19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 Hub                                          Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                         8.34           8.89                               
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL              7.26           7.51                               
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL                   9.13           9.93                               
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL                 7.17           7.65                               
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL                 7.86           8.42                               
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL               7.97           8.37                               
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL                 8.70           9.05                               
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                       7.83           8.20                               
 AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL                           6.17           6.45 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 Hub                                          Current Day                                          
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL                    68.25          87.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                       70.25          85.25                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL                    62.75          78.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                          35.25          45.38                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL                     43.00          63.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                          43.25          63.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Porter and Chizu Nomiyama)
  
 
 
for-phone-onlyfor-tablet-portrait-upfor-tablet-landscape-upfor-desktop-upfor-wide-desktop-up