(Updates prices)
Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Friday, ending a second straight week of gains, as significant output
remained offline in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, exacerbating supply concerns in an already tight market.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery rose 7.1 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $4.712 per million British thermal
units. Prices hit a more than two-year peak on Thursday.
U.S. Gulf Coast energy companies have advanced efforts to restart facilities, but larger hurdles remain for producers and
refiners.
"We normally expect a quick recovery in production from hurricanes and this time it doesn't look like that's going to happen, so
that's raising concerns about adequate storage going into winter," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in
Chicago.
"Near-term, a test of $5 in the front end of the curve is not out of the question."
A weekly report released on Thursday showing a storage injection of just 20 billion cubic feet (bcf) during the week ended Aug.
27 also supported prices.
Data provider Refinitiv said total U.S. production has averaged 88.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down
from 92.0 bcfd in August. Output is also expected to slip further, to 88 bcfd next week.
U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico rose to an average 6.3 bcfd so far this month, from 6.2 bcfd in August, but were slightly lower
than June's monthly record of 6.7 bcfd.
With European and Asian gas both trading over $18 per mmBtu, compared with just under $5 for the U.S. fuel,
analysts have said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the liquefied natural gas the United States can produce.
But Price Group's Flynn noted that the closure of several key ports in Louisiana due to Ida could temporarily slow LNG exports. Week ended Sept 3 Week ended Aug 27 Year ago Five-year average
(Forecast) (Actual) Aug 27 Aug 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 35 20 36 53
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,906 2,871 3,450 3,093
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -7.98% -7.20% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Average
mmBtu) Last Year Average 2020 (2016-2020)
Henry Hub 4.67 4.62 2.13 2.66
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 18.00 17.95 3.24 5.19 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 18.46 18.02 4.22 6.49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree
Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 10 10 30 23 21
U.S. GFS CDDs 157 155 131 146 136
U.S. GFS TDDs 167 165 161 169 157 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Five-Year Average
Year For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 89.5 89.3 90.1 89.2 82.6
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.6
U.S. LNG Imports 0 0 0 0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 96.5 96.6 97.4 96.7 90.3 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 2.7 2.6 2 2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 5
U.S. LNG Exports 10.5 10.9 10.9 3.3 3.1
U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.8
U.S. Residential 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.8
U.S. Power Plant 37.3 33.0 32.2 37.5 32.8
U.S. Industrial 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.5 21.1
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 73.0 68.5 68.2 73.9 68.9
Total U.S. Demand 92.1 88.3 88.0 85.4 79.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 4.7 4.5
Transco Z6 New York 3.8 3.9
PG&E Citygate 5.7 5.8
Dominion South 3.8 3.8
Chicago Citygate 4.5 4.4
Algonquin Citygate 3.9 4
SoCal Citygate 5.5 5.4
Waha Hub 4.5 4.5 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 39.5 30.5
PJM West 29.8 30
Ercot North 52.8 50.5
Mid C 50 50
Palo Verde 42 42
SP-15 52 52
(Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Dan Grebler)
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