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UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas leaps over 7% as traders strap in for storage report

 (Rewrites throughout, adds comment, updates prices)
    Sept 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Wednesday surged over 7% as the market prepared for an
inventory report later this week likely indicating a low addition to stockpiles, with a dent to production in the
U.S. Gulf of Mexico in the footsteps of Hurricane Ida further elevating prices.
    Front-month gas futures for October delivery rose 23.8 cents, or 5.4%, to settle at $4.615 per million
British thermal units (mmBtu), earlier jumping as much as 7.5% to $4.706 per mmBtu, a level unseen since late
November 2018. 
    "This surge has been spurred on by short covering and anticipation of a very bullish, small storage injection
expected in this week's storage report. Production losses due to Hurricane Ida are likely to weigh on the storage
injection in the current week," said Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston. 
    U.S. utilities likely injected a lower-than-normal 25 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage
last week as unusually warm weather lifted demand for fuel to power air conditioning, a Reuters poll of analysts
showed on Wednesday.
    "Milder weather later in September may eventually moderate current increases once the rate of injections is
allowed to pick up," Myers said, adding that "$5 is not out of the question as the market has little room to
respond to higher prices in the near term." 
    Data provider Refinitiv said total U.S. production averaged 92.0 bcfd in August versus 91.6 bcfd in July.
That compared with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
    "There have been some shut-ins recorded because of the recent storm and that has helped push the market
higher. When supply is restored, the market will start to ease off," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for
energy at StoneX Financial Inc.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has slipped to an average of 10.5 bcfd in August from
10.8 bcfd in the previous month, and much below April's 11.5 bcfd record. 

             
                                               Week ended     Week ended    Year ago    Five-year   
                                                 Aug 27         Aug 20       Aug 27      average    
                                               (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Aug 27     
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):          +25           +29           +36         +53      
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):              2,876         2,851         3,450       3,093     
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average          -7%          -6.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)    Current Day    Prior Day    This Month   Prior Year    Five Year
                                                                            Last Year    Average       Average
                                                                                           2020      (2016-2020)
 Henry Hub                                        4.48           4.30                      2.13         2.66
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                    18.01         16.93                      3.24         5.19
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                         18.22         17.72                      4.22         6.49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                                 
 Two-Week Total Forecast                       Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year    10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                           Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                     11             11           16           16           19
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                     153           139           158         152           142
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                     164           150           174         168           161 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                              
                                               Prior Week    Current Week   Next Week   This Week     Five-Year
                                                                                        Last Year    Average For Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                     92.5           89.5         90.0         89.2         82.6
 U.S. Imports from Canada                          7.3           7.2           7.6         7.5           7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                                  0.0           0.0           0.0         0.0           0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                                99.8           96.6         97.5         96.7         90.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                            2.3           2.4           2.6         2.0           2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                            6.1           6.2           6.2         6.2           5.0
 U.S. LNG Exports                                 10.6           10.6         10.6         3.3           3.1
 U.S. Commercial                                   4.5           4.6           4.6         4.6           4.8
 U.S. Residential                                  3.6           3.7           3.7         3.7           3.8
 U.S. Power Plant                                 39.5           37.4         33.2         37.5         32.8
 U.S. Industrial                                  20.9           21.0         21.0         21.5         21.1
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                   4.6           4.4           4.4         4.6           4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                            2.0           1.9           1.8         1.9           1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                 0.1           0.1           0.1         0.1           0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                           75.2           73.1         68.9         73.9         68.9
 Total U.S. Demand                                94.3           92.4         88.3         85.4         79.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                                 
 Hub                                           Current Day    Prior Day                             
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                          4.33           4.25                               
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL               3.83           3.98                               
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL                    5.48           5.48                               
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL                  3.72           3.83                               
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL                  4.18           4.12                               
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL                3.92           4.08                               
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL                  6.27           6.87                               
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                        4.23           4.17 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                               
 Hub                                           Current Day    Prior Day                             
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL                     38.75         50.75                               
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                        41.15         38.50                               
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL                     56.00         100.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                           46.75         44.07                               
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL                      47.92         58.00                               
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                           52.50         59.25                               
 
 (Reporting by Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Edmund Blair and Jonathan Oatis)
  
 
 
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