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Energy

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas jump to 20-month high on rising LNG exports, cold weather

 (Adds latest prices)
    Oct 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 4% to their highest close in 20 months on
Tuesday on rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for colder weather and more heating
demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
    Front-month gas futures rose 11.8 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $2.913 per million British
thermal units, their highest close since January 2019.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 88.4 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) on Monday from a six-week high of 88.6 bcfd last week.
    As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump
from 90.0 bcfd this week to 98.7 bcfd next week.
    Tankers were entering and leaving Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass LNG export plant in
Louisiana despite draft limitations in the Sabine-Neches Waterway after a rig ran aground in the
channel over the weekend.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 6.9 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7
bcfd in September.
    That would be the most LNG exports in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a
third month in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising
global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse cargo cancellations.
    U.S. exports fell from March to July as coronavirus-related demand destruction caused prices in
Europe and Asia to collapse to record lows and buyers to cancel around 175 U.S. cargoes.
    But now, front-month gas prices in Europe and Asia were trading at their
highest since November 2019 and October 2019, respectively, putting both more than $2 per mmBtu over
the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark.
    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 16        Oct 9         Oct 16     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 16    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +56           +46          +92         +75 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             203           193          173         145          176
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             35             37           28          31           26
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             238           230          201         176          202
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             84.7           88.3         88.2        95.7         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.2           5.6          6.0         7.4          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        90.9           93.9         94.1       103.1         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2           2.3          2.2         2.4          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.2           6.0          6.0         5.4          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.5           7.7          8.6         6.9          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.8           7.2          9.4         7.5          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          5.6           8.3          12.9        9.2          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.9           29.5         29.3        28.8         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.9           22.6         23.6        22.1         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.4          4.4         4.3          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           2.0          2.2         2.0          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   70.4           74.0         81.8        74.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        85.2           90.0         98.7        88.7         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.30           2.16                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.28           1.29                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            4.10           4.02                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.12           1.17                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          2.42           2.15                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.60           1.62                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          3.49           3.83                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.48          -0.32 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             28.00         20.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                22.75         19.25                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             21.25         13.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   32.94         32.06                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              35.50         48.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   51.50         64.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum, Steve Orlofsky and Richard Chang)
  
 
 
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