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UPDATE 1-U.S. natural gas up 6% on output decline, cooler forecasts

 (Adds latest prices)
    April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6%
to a nine-week peak on Tuesday on a preliminary drop in U.S.
output, cooler forecasts and the possibility that additional
sanctions on Russian gas supplies will keep U.S. liquefied
natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs for months to come.
    U.S. gas futures have climbed in recent months - average
prices in March hit their highest levels in eight years - while
global gas prices and demand for LNG soared as several countries
seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded
Ukraine on Feb. 24.
    Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special military
operation" to disarm its neighbor.
    Front-month gas futures rose 32.0 cents, or 5.6%, to
settle at $6.032 per million British thermal units (mmBtu),
their highest close since Jan. 27.
    Record U.S. LNG demand has kept the front-month in
technically overbought territory with a relative strength index
(RSI) over 70 for a fifth day in a row for the first time since
September 2021, and caused the 12-month futures strip
to rise to its highest since February 2010 for a third day in a
row.
    Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S.
Lower 48 states has risen to 94.6 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in April, from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares
with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December.
    On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about
1.4 bcfd to 93.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in
Texas, according to preliminary Refinitiv data. If that drop is
correct - preliminary data is often revised - it would be the
biggest one-day decline since extreme cold in early February
froze wells.
    Cold was definitely not the problem on Tuesday. AccuWeather
forecast high temperatures in the West Texas Permian shale basin
will reach 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 Celsius), about 10
degrees above normal for this time of year.
    Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including
exports, would drop from 97.4 bcfd this week to 92.7 bcfd next
week as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts
were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has
slipped from a record 12.9 bcfd in March to 12.5 bcfd so far in
April due to declines at Cheniere Energy Inc's Corpus
Christi facility and Freeport LNG's facility in Texas. The
United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG.
    The U.S. gas market remains mostly shielded from higher
global prices because the United States, as the world's top gas
producer, has all the fuel it needs for domestic use and
capacity constraints limit its ability to export more LNG no
matter how high global prices rise.
    Despite the threat of more sanctions on Russia, European gas
 eased about 2% on Tuesday to around $34 per mmBtu
on oversupply concerns. So far this year, the U.S. gas market
has followed European prices less than half the time.
    
                                              Week ended     Week ended     Year ago   Five-year        
                                                 Apr 1         Mar 25        Apr 1      average    
                                              (Forecast)      (Actual)                   Apr 1     
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):         -19            +26          +19          +8           
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):             1,396          1,415        1,791       1,667          
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average       -16.3%         -14.7% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)   Current Day     Prior Day    This Month  Prior Year   Five Year
                                                                           Last Year    Average      Average
                                                                                          2021     (2017-2021)
 Henry Hub                                       5.89           5.71          2.69        3.73        2.89
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                   35.62          34.93         7.15       16.04        7.49
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                        32.95          34.69         7.80       18.00        8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                                     
 Two-Week Total Forecast                      Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year      30-Year
                                                                                          Norm        Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                    177            169          138         180          176
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                    32             32            24          30          28
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                    209            201          162         210          204 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                                  
                                              Prior Week    Current Week   Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                       Last Year   Average For Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                    94.1           94.7          95.1        92.6        84.8
 U.S. Imports from Canada                         8.9            8.1          7.8         7.4          7.8
 U.S. LNG Imports                                 0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                               103.0          102.8        102.9       100.0        92.7 U.S. Demand (bcfd)                                                                                     
 U.S. Exports to Canada                           3.3            2.7          2.7         2.8          2.6
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                           5.4            5.6          5.6         5.9          4.6
 U.S. LNG Exports                                13.1           12.3          12.0        11.3         5.2
 U.S. Commercial                                 11.9            9.7          8.7         7.1          8.3
 U.S. Residential                                17.7           13.9          12.0        8.6         11.8
 U.S. Power Plant                                24.4           23.4          22.3        23.5        24.0
 U.S. Industrial                                 23.6           23.0          22.7        22.0        22.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                  4.6            4.7          4.7         4.7          4.6
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                           2.3            2.0          1.9         2.1          2.2
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                          84.6           76.8          72.5        68.1        73.0
 Total U.S. Demand                               106.5          97.4          92.7        88.1        85.4 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA                                                
                                              Week ended     Week ended    Week ended  Week ended  Week ended
                                                 Apr 8          Apr 1        Mar 25      Mar 18      Mar 11
 Wind                                             13             15            15          15          13
 Solar                                             4              4            3           3            3
 Hydro                                             8              8            8           8            8
 Other                                             2              2            2           2            2
 Petroleum                                         0              0            0           0            0
 Natural Gas                                      32             32            31          31          33
 Coal                                             20             19            18          20          21
 Nuclear                                          21             20            21          20          20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                                     
 Hub                                          Current Day     Prior Day                                 
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                         5.72           5.43                                    
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL              5.41           5.27                                    
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL                   6.25           6.12                                    
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL                 5.23           5.12                                    
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL                 5.54           5.44                                    
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL               5.50           5.59                                    
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL                 5.64           5.36                                    
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                       5.20           4.72                                    
 AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL                           4.78           4.56 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                                   
 Hub                                          Current Day                                               
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL                    58.75          56.00                                   
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                       45.50          58.50                                   
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL                    79.60          58.25                                   
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                          40.42          39.00                                   
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL                     34.00          28.00                                   
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                          40.00          30.50                                   
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino;
Editing by Paul Simao and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
  
 
 
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