June 3, 2020 / 7:18 PM / a month ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures gain on storm concerns and rising LNG exports

 (Adds latest prices, sentence on storm)
    June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed on Wednesday ahead of a storm that could disrupt
Gulf Coast production and as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports edge up with gas prices rocketing
higher in Europe.
    After dropping to record lows last week, major European gas benchmarks
soared more than 40% over the past three days, driving forwards for September at the Title
Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands above the U.S. Henry Hub in Louisiana for the first
time since late April.
    In the Gulf of Mexico, meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cristobal is expected to sweep across Louisiana's
on- and offshore production areas over the coming weekend.
    Front-month gas futures rose 4.4 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $1.821 per million British
thermal units.
    Looking ahead, futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading
about 23% and 47% over the front-month, respectively, on hopes the economy will snap back as governments
lift coronavirus-linked travel restrictions.
    Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 88.3 billion
cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a one-year low of 89.3 bcfd in May and an all-time
monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    With the coming of warmer summer weather, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, would
rise from 81.0 bcfd this week to 82.0 bcfd next week.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach 4.5 bcfd on
Wednesday up from a 13-month low of 3.8 bcfd earlier in the week. That compares with an eight-month low
of 6.4 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
    Analysts said U.S. LNG exports dropped in recent months as buyers cancel cargoes due to the collapse
in European prices.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          May 29        May 22        May 29     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  May 29    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +110           +109         +118        +103     
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              10             11           17          22           21
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             164            163          127         140          131
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             174            174          144         162          152
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.3           88.6         88.5        89.9         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.1            6.2          6.6         8.0          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.3           94.8         95.1        97.9         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            2.2          2.3         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    4.8            5.0          4.8         4.8          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.0            5.0          4.6         5.2          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6            4.6          4.5         4.6          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0            4.0          3.8         4.1          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          29.5           32.5         34.1        32.0         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.2           21.3         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.7            1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    65.6           68.8         70.2        68.4         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         78.5           81.0         82.0        80.6         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.58           1.58                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.52           1.34                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.59           2.47                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.44           1.32                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.64           1.54                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.59           1.45                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.44           2.11                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.49           1.41                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             22.00          19.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                25.50          21.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             28.00          23.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   13.39           9.69                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              48.38          33.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   40.50          35.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)
  
 
 
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