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REFILE-UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures jump to 9-week high as output slides

 (Fixes typographical error in headline to make it "jump" instead of "jumps")
    April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 6% to a nine-week high on Wednesday on
expectations gas production will decline in coming weeks as drillers shut oil wells in shale basins due
to the recent collapse of U.S. crude prices. Those oil wells produce a lot of gas.
    Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.8 cents,
or 6.5%, to settle at $1.939 per million British thermal units.
    U.S. crude futures, meanwhile, were on track to fall for a third week in a row as government
lockdowns to slow the spread of coronavirus cut global demand for oil. That puts the U.S. contract down
over 50% during that time.
    Looking ahead, however, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021
were trading much higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump as the economy snaps back
once governments loosen travel and work restrictions. Calendar 2021 has traded over 2022
 for 30 days in a row and over 2025 for 20 days.
    Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states dropped to a four-week low of 92.3 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) on Tuesday from 93.1 bcfd on Monday, according to data firm Refinitiv.
    In the long term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected coronavirus lockdowns
will cut U.S. gas demand - not including exports - to an average of 83.79 bcfd in 2020 and 81.24 bcfd in
2021 from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019. If correct, that would be the first annual decline in consumption
since 2017 and the first time demand falls for two consecutive years since 2006.
    The EIA expects U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports will still hit fresh records in
coming years as more LNG export plants and pipelines to Mexico enter service. The pace of that export
growth, however, has slowed from what the agency expected before the pandemic.
    The EIA projected LNG exports would rise from a record 5.0 bcfd in 2019 to 7.0 bcfd in 2020 and 7.7
bcfd in 2021, while pipeline exports will rise from a record 7.8 bcfd in 2019 to 8.4 bcfd in 2020 and 8.6
bcfd in 2021.
    In the short term with the coming of milder weather, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in
the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 93.5 bcfd this week to 88.9 bcfd next week as the
weather turns milder.
    U.S. pipeline exports have dropped to a 30-day average of 2.4 bcfd to Canada and 4.9 bcfd to Mexico
due to mild weather so far this year and coronavirus-related demand destruction, according to Refinitiv,
down from around 3.5 bcfd to Canada and 5.9 bcfd to Mexico in January.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals, meanwhile, fell to a five-week low of 7.7
bcfd on Tuesday from 8.1 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv.
      
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago    Five-year   
                                           April       April 10      April 17     average    
                                       17(Forecast)     (Actual)                 April 17    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +29            +73          +92          +49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                          
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year    10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm      
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             124            129          113          120          115
 U.S. GFS CDDs                              59             55           45          46            42
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             173            184          158          166          157
                                                                                             
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                       
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week    This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                 Last Year   Average For
                                                                                                Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              93.2           92.7         92.9        89.8          77.2
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.3            6.0          6.7          7.8          8.1
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0          0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         98.5           98.7         99.6        97.6          85.4
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            2.5          2.4          2.7          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    4.4            4.5          4.9          4.0          3.7
 U.S. LNG Exports                          8.4            8.1          8.5          5.1          1.8
 U.S. Commercial                           10.2           9.1          7.5          6.5          8.2
 U.S. Residential                          14.5           12.7         9.5          7.7          11.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          27.5           27.1         27.2        25.7          21.5
 U.S. Industrial                           23.4           22.7         22.2        21.8          23.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.6            4.6          4.6          4.6          4.6
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.2            2.1          1.9          2.1          2.2
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1          0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    82.6           78.3         73.1        68.5          70.9
 Total U.S. Demand                         97.6           93.5         88.9        80.3          78.7 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                          
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                             
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.92           1.78                               
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.81           1.68                               
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.36           2.28                               
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.66           1.57                               
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.83           1.78                               
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         2.14           1.78                               
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.61           1.55                               
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 0.33          -3.67 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                             
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.00          18.75                               
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                21.00          19.25                               
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             19.00          23.00                               
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   15.40          15.38                               
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              12.75           9.50                               
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   13.25          10.00                               
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Richard Chang and Jonathan Oatis)
  
 
 
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